Commodity Morning Trading Guide | Globe Capital Market LTD.
30-Jun-2023
Commodity Morning Trading Guide

Bullions counter may trade on subdued path as yellow metal struggled for momentum as trader’s awaited key U.S. inflation numbers due later in the day after a slew of strong data prints and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials raised bets of more rate hikes. U.S. data showed a resilient labour market, while gross domestic product for the first quarter was revised upward, making a strong case for the Fed to raise rates to bring down inflation. Gold can move in range of 57850-58100 while silver also can move in range of 69000-70500.

Report Overview

BULLIONS

Bullions counter may trade on subdued path as yellow metal struggled for momentum as trader’s awaited key U.S. inflation numbers due later in the day after a slew of strong data prints and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials raised bets of more rate hikes. U.S. data showed a resilient labour market, while gross domestic product for the first quarter was revised upward, making a strong case for the Fed to raise rates to bring down inflation. Gold can move in range of 57850-58100 while silver also can move in range of 69000-70500. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank was likely to raise rates at least twice more by year-end, Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic said it was clear that inflation had fallen. Investors now see an 89% chance of a 25-basis point hike in July, according to CME’s Fedwatch tool. High interest rates discourage investment in non-yielding gold.

BASE METALS

In base metal counter, Copper can trade in green as it can move in range of 704-715. Inventories in south China continued to increase due to the relatively weak downstream consumption near the end of the month, and smelters liquidating inventories, lowering spot quotes. Zinc may remain on sideways path as it can move in range of 208-215. Aluminum can trade on subdued path in range of 194-199. There are growing expectations for interest rate hikes in the United States and Europe. Production resumption in Yunnan will also grow supply pressure. Aluminum ingot and billet stocks both rose after the Dragon Boat Festival due to poor demand.

ENERGY: Crude oil may witness some lower level buying as it can move in range of 5700-5840. Oil prices settled higher on Thursday after flip flopping during the session, supported by a bigger draw than expected in U.S. crude inventories but pressured by fears that rising interest rates could dent global economic growth. Investors were concerned about rising interest rates and economic growth after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that he expects the moderate pace of interest rate decisions to continue in the coming months. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week by the most in 20 months, offering an upbeat picture of the labor market that could encourage the Fed to keep raising interest rates. Natural gas prices may witness lower level buying as it can move in range of 217-224.

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Disclosure

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