Commodity Morning Trading Guide | Globe Capital Market LTD.
Commodity Morning Trading Guide

Bullions counter may trade on upside path as yellow metal were poised for a third consecutive weekly gain on Friday

Report Overview


Bullions counter may trade on upside path as yellow metal were poised for a third consecutive weekly gain on Friday as the Middle East conflict kept investors drawn towards safety of bullion despite a higher-for-longer U.S. interest rate backdrop. Gold can move in range of 60800-61400 while silver also can move in range of 71500-72500. Israeli forces executed their biggest ground attack in Gaza in their war with Hamas overnight as anger grew in the Arab world over Israel’s unrelenting airstrikes on the besieged Palestinian territory. Gold has gained about 9% as investors sought refuge from the potential fallout of the Israel-Hamas war that escalated earlier this month. But the lingering prospects of higher U.S. interest rates have kept prices below the $2,000 ceiling last breached in May. Investor focus is also on the U.S. personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index due later in the day for cues on what to expect from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week.


In base metal counter, Copper can move on mixed path as it can move in range of 697-707. The global refined copper market showed a 33,000 metric tons deficit in August, up from 30,000 metric tons in July. However, the overall balance for the first eight months of the year remained in surplus, in contrast to the previous year’s deficit. World refined copper output in August was 2.25 million metric tons, slightly below consumption at 2.28 million metric tons. Chinese copper cathode production in September increased by 2.3% month-on-month and 11.3% year-on-year, reflecting continued growth. Although China’s support measures boosted metal demand, concerns over its economic slowdown, rising interest rates, and weak global manufacturing continue to pose risks for base metals. In the Eurozone, bank lending nearly came to a halt, suggesting the region’s economy is on the brink of a recession. Aluminum can move in range of 204-206.


Crude oil may trade on upside path as it may move in range of 6950-7150 due to wider Middle East conflict. Oil prices have been boosted recently by fears of a spillover affecting global crude supplies from the conflict between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas, which could embroil Iran and its allies in the region. Worries about the broader global economy also weighed on prices. U.S. Treasury yields headed back toward 5% on Thursday, dragging shares around the world to multi-month lows. The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged as expected on Thursday, snapping an unprecedented streak of 10 consecutive rate hikes, and maintained its guidance which implies steady policy ahead. OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, cut production by 1.3 millions per day (bpd) earlier this year and in September extended the reduced production level through the end of the year. Natural gas prices may witness some short covering as it can move in range of 285-305.


























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