Commodity Morning Trading Guide | Globe Capital
16-Jan-2023
Commodity Morning Trading Guide

Bullions counter can trade on positive path as it climbed a near a nine-month high as a softer dollar and expectations of slower interest rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve added to bullion’s shine. Gold can move in range of 56200-56800 while Silver also can move in range of 69000-70500. The Fed raised rates by 75 basis points (bps) four times last year, before slowing to a 50 bps increase in December.

Report Overview

BULLIONS

Bullions counter can trade on positive path as it climbed a near a nine-month high as a softer dollar and expectations of slower interest rate hikes from the U.S. Federal Reserve added to bullion’s shine. Gold can move in range of 56200-56800 while Silver also can move in range of 69000-70500. The Fed raised rates by 75 basis points (bps) four times last year, before slowing to a 50 bps increase in December. Most traders expect a 25 bps hike at the U.S. central bank’s next policy meeting on Jan. 31-Feb. 1. Investors will also keep an eye out for the U.S. retail sales data due on Wednesday. U.S. consumers are becoming more confident that price pressures will ease considerably over the next 12 months, their one-year inflation expectations falling in January to the lowest level since the spring of 2021.

BASE METALS

In base metal counter, Copper can remain on higher side as it can move in range of 765-772. On the macro front, economic data released showed that US inflation dropped more than expected, strengthening market expectations that the Fed will slow down the pace of rate hikes. The US dollar continued to fall, offering support to metals prices. Since the end of December, the copper inventory across China has increased for three consecutive weeks, and the inventory in all regions grew last week. Spot imports were scarce last week. The copper stocks were shipments from domestic smelters, and the poor downstream consumption mainly contributed to the increase in inventory. Zinc may move on firm path as it can move in range of 280-290. Aluminum can trade on upside path as it can move range of 214-222.

ENERGY: Crude oil may trade on firm path on optimism that China’s reopening will lift fuel demand at the world’s top crude importer. Overall it can move in range of 6400-6520 in MCX. The rebound in domestic demand is expected to lead to a 40% drop in China’s exports of refined oil products in January from December’s figure, led by gasoline. This week, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the International Energy Agency will release their monthly reports, closely watched by investors for global demand and supply outlooks. Natural gas prices can trade lower as it can move in range of 290-310. Although a sharp cold snap froze much of the US around Christmas, the number of gas-weighted heating degree days – a measure of energy demand – has been running 25 per cent lower than normal in January, according to the Energy Information Administration.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Disclosure

Globe Capital Market Limited (“GCML”) is a Stock Broker registered with BSE, NSE, USE and MSEI in all the major segments viz. Capital, F & O and CDS segments. GCML is also a Depository Participant and registered with both the Depositories viz. CDSL and NSDL. Further, GCML is a SEBI registered Portfolio Manager. GCML includes subsidiaries, group and associate companies, promoters, directors, employees and affiliates.

Globe Commodities Limited, Globe Derivatives and Securities Limited & Globe Fincap Limited are subsidiaries of GCML. Rolex Finvest Private Limited, A to Z Consultants Private Limited, A to Z Venture Capital Limited, M. Agarwal Stock Brokers Private Limited, A M Share Brokers Private Limited, Shri Adinath Advertising Company Pvt. Ltd., Orient Landbase Private Limited, Bolt Synthetic Private Limited, Price ponder Private Limited and Lakshya Impex Private Limited are associates of GCML. Globe Comex International DMCC is step down subsidiary of GCML.

This report has been prepared by GCML and published in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 19 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, for use by the recipient as information only and is not for general circulation or public distribution. This report is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced, copied, redistributed, uploaded, published or made available to others, in any form, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission from GCML. The projections and the forecasts described in this report are based on estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections are forecasts were based may not materialize or may vary significantly from actual results and such variations will likely increase over the period of time. This report should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this report nor anything contained therein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objective, financial situation or needs of any individual in particular. The research analysts of GCML have adhered to the code of conduct under Regulation 24 (2) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. The recipients of this report must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial situation or needs and other factors. The recipients should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for its/ his/ her/their particular circumstances and if necessary, seek professional / financial advice as there is substantial risk of loss. GCML does not take any responsibility thereof.

Any such recipient shall be responsible for conducting his/her/its/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this report and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in securities forming the subject matter of this report. The price and value of the investment referred to in this report and income from them may go up as well as down, and investors may realize profit/loss on their investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the projection.

This report has been prepared by GCML based on the information available in the public domain and other public sources believed to be reliable. Though utmost care has been taken to ensure its accuracy and completeness, no representation or warranty, express or implied is made by GCML that such information is accurate or complete and/or is independently verified. The contents of this report represent the assumptions and projections of GCML and GCML does not guarantee the accuracy or reliability of any projection, assurances or advice made herein. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and/or tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to recipients’ specific circumstances.

Since GCML or its associates are engaged in various financial activities, they might have financial interest or beneficial ownership in various companies including subject company/companies mentioned in the report. GCML or its associates have not received any compensation for investment banking or merchant banking from the subject company in the past 12 months. GCML or its associates might have received any compensation including brokerage services and for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking from the subject company in the past 12 months. It is confirmed that GCML or research analyst or its associates have not managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past 12 months.

Research analyst or GCML or its relatives’/associates’ have no material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. Neither research analyst nor GCML are engaged in market making activity for the subject company. It is confirmed that research analysts do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. It is also confirmed that research analyst have not received any compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months.

No material disciplinary action has been taken on GCML by any regulatory authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities.

The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. This information is subject to change, as per applicable law, without any prior notice. GCML reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement, as may be required, from time to time.

Research analyst or GCML or its relatives’/associates’ do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more in securities of the subject company, at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the document.

Open Account