Commodity Morning Trading Guide | Globe Capital Market LTD.
Commodity Morning Trading Guide

Bullions counter may continue to remain on volatile path as traders awaited more economic data that could steer hopes for a mid-year rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Report Overview


Bullions counter may continue to remain on volatile path as traders awaited more economic data that could steer hopes for a mid-year rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Overall gold can move in range of 65500-66000 while silver also can move in range of 74000-76000. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at its policy meeting next week, but the focus will be on the ‘dot plot’ projections. The U.S. central bank in its December meeting pencilled three-quarter-point rate cuts for 2024. Investors will look at the U.S. retail sales data, the producer prices index (PPI) report and jobless claims due later in the day to gauge the U.S. economy’s health and if it will deter the Fed from cutting rates in June. Traders see a 67% chance of a June rate cut, according to LSEG’s interest rate probability app, down from 72% before data showed U.S. consumer prices increased slightly above market expectations in February, suggesting some stickiness in inflation. Chances for a July rate cut stand at 83%.


In base metal counter, Copper can move on firm path in range of 745-760. Shanghai copper prices jumped more than 3% on Thursday to their highest in nearly three years after Chinese producers agreed to curb output to cope with lower supply of raw material. Mine disruptions and vast global smelting capacity expansion have led to shortage of copper ore, leading to China’s biggest copper smelters to agree to cut output at some loss-making plants, adjust maintenance plans and postpone new projects. China produced 13 million tons of refined copper last year, or 47% of the global output, data by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics showed. It is also the world’s biggest copper consumer. Analysts had forecast the fees to process copper concentrate, which dropped to the lowest in more than a decade and hurt smelters’ profit, could rebound in the second quarter, the seasonal peak of Chinese smelting maintenance. Aluminium may trade on positive path as it may move in range of 202-206.


Crude oil may trade on positive path as it may move in range of 6550-6650. Oil prices edged up in Asia on Thursday, supported by strong demand in the U.S. after gasoline stocks hit a three month low and crude stockpiles dropped unexpectedly, with supply concerns remaining after Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. Natural gas prices may move on weaker path as it may move in range of 133-143. Natural gas futures fell Wednesday, pressured lower by weak near-term fundamentals sending cash prices to new lows and a looming government storage report Thursday that could show a bearish early season build. NGI’s Spot Gas National Avg. dropped 15.0 cents to $1.135, its second lowest level ever since the price series began in 2013. Underscoring the weak demand for gas this winter and the resulting ballooning gas surpluses, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) this week slashed its projected 2024 Henry Hub price by 14% to $2.27.
















































































Globe Capital Market Limited (“GCML”) is a Stock Broker registered with BSE, NSE, USE and MSEI in all the major segments viz. Capital, F & O and CDS segments. GCML is also a Depository Participant and registered with both the Depositories viz. CDSL and NSDL. Further, GCML is a SEBI registered Portfolio Manager. GCML includes subsidiaries, group and associate companies, promoters, directors, employees and affiliates.

Globe Commodities Limited, Globe Derivatives and Securities Limited & Globe Fincap Limited are subsidiaries of GCML. Rolex Finvest Private Limited, A to Z Consultants Private Limited, A to Z Venture Capital Limited, M. Agarwal Stock Brokers Private Limited, A M Share Brokers Private Limited, Shri Adinath Advertising Company Pvt. Ltd., Orient Landbase Private Limited, Bolt Synthetic Private Limited, Price ponder Private Limited and Lakshya Impex Private Limited are associates of GCML. Globe Comex International DMCC is step down subsidiary of GCML.

This report has been prepared by GCML and published in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 19 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, for use by the recipient as information only and is not for general circulation or public distribution. This report is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced, copied, redistributed, uploaded, published or made available to others, in any form, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission from GCML. The projections and the forecasts described in this report are based on estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections are forecasts were based may not materialize or may vary significantly from actual results and such variations will likely increase over the period of time. This report should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this report nor anything contained therein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objective, financial situation or needs of any individual in particular. The research analysts of GCML have adhered to the code of conduct under Regulation 24 (2) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. The recipients of this report must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial situation or needs and other factors. The recipients should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for its/ his/ her/their particular circumstances and if necessary, seek professional / financial advice as there is substantial risk of loss. GCML does not take any responsibility thereof.

Any such recipient shall be responsible for conducting his/her/its/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this report and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in securities forming the subject matter of this report. The price and value of the investment referred to in this report and income from them may go up as well as down, and investors may realize profit/loss on their investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the projection.

This report has been prepared by GCML based on the information available in the public domain and other public sources believed to be reliable. Though utmost care has been taken to ensure its accuracy and completeness, no representation or warranty, express or implied is made by GCML that such information is accurate or complete and/or is independently verified. The contents of this report represent the assumptions and projections of GCML and GCML does not guarantee the accuracy or reliability of any projection, assurances or advice made herein. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and/or tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to recipients’ specific circumstances.

Since GCML or its associates are engaged in various financial activities, they might have financial interest or beneficial ownership in various companies including subject company/companies mentioned in the report. GCML or its associates have not received any compensation for investment banking or merchant banking from the subject company in the past 12 months. GCML or its associates might have received any compensation including brokerage services and for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking from the subject company in the past 12 months. It is confirmed that GCML or research analyst or its associates have not managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past 12 months.

Research analyst or GCML or its relatives’/associates’ have no material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. Neither research analyst nor GCML are engaged in market making activity for the subject company. It is confirmed that research analysts do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. It is also confirmed that research analyst have not received any compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months.

No material disciplinary action has been taken on GCML by any regulatory authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities.

The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. This information is subject to change, as per applicable law, without any prior notice. GCML reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement, as may be required, from time to time.

Research analyst or GCML or its relatives’/associates’ do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more in securities of the subject company, at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the document.