Commodity Morning Trading Guide | Globe Capital Market LTD.
Commodity Morning Trading Guide

Bullions counter may remain on volatile path as US CPI data later today to give further direction to the prices.

Report Overview



Bullions counter may remain on volatile path as US CPI data later today to give further direction to the prices. The headline CPI is expected to rise by 0.1% in November and the yearly pace ticked down to 3.1%. The core gauge is anticipated to edge up from 0.2% to 0.3% MoM and hold steady at a 4.0% YoY rate. Gold can move in range of 61100-61500 while Silver also can move in range of 71500-72600.  According to CME group’s FedWatch Tool, investors are still pricing in over a 40% chance of a March cut of at least 25 basis points (bps) and a nearly 75% chance of such a move in May 2024. The market attention will then shift to the outcome of the highly-anticipated two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting, scheduled to be announced during the US session on Wednesday.


In base metal counter, Copper can witness some bounce back as it can move in range of 712-718. Prices of most nonferrous metals rose as a softer dollar made the greenback-priced metals cheaper to holders of other currencies. The dollar eased as investors stayed cautious ahead of a crucial U.S. inflation report later in the day that will set the tone for the week filled with central bank meetings. Copper prices were also supported by mine closures and disruptions that have prompted analysts to lower their forecasts for surpluses. Combined refined copper inventories in SHFE and China’s bonded warehouses dropped to 39,342 tons from 316,176 tons at the end of the first quarter. Zinc can move in range of 215-220.


Crude oil may trade on firm path as it may move in range of 5940-6070. Oil prices ticked as investors played cautious ahead of key interest rate decisions and inflation data releases, but concerns over supply surplus and slower demand growth kept a lid on gains. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is due on Tuesday, while the Federal Open Markets Committee’s (FOMC) two-day monetary policy meeting will end on Wednesday. The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday, but the November Fed minutes showed that policymakers were still concerned that inflation could be stubborn, leaving the door open for additional tightening if needed. Meanwhile, oil investors remain sceptical that total supply will drop after the OPEC+ group pledged to cut 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first quarter of 2024, as output growth in non-OPEC countries is expected to lead to excess supply next year. Natural gas prices may remain on weaker path as it can move in range of 200-207.














































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