Commodity Morning Trading Guide | Globe Capital
08-Jul-2022
Commodity Morning Trading Guide

Energy and bullion counter can witness short covering from lower levels as  outcome of today US non farm payroll data will give further direction to the prices.

Report Overview

BULLIONS

Gold firmed on Friday as the dollar came slightly off two-decade highs, but bullion was set to post its biggest weekly drop in more than a month as the elevated greenback hit demand.  The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment  benefits unexpectedly rose last week and there are growing signs that demand for labour is cooling, with layoffs surging to a 16-month high in June, as the Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary policy tightening stokes recession fears. Two of the Fed’s most vocal hawks on Thursday said they would support another 75 basis-point interest rate increase later this month but a downshift to a slower pace afterward, even as both downplayed the risk of higher borrowing costs pushing the U.S into recession.  Rising short-term U.S. interest rates and bond yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, which yields no interest.

BASE METALS

News of possible stimulus measures in China recently  pushed copper prices up sharply from a 20-month low the day before, but upside still limited as rising interest rates stifle global economic growth. International Monetary Fund (IMF) head said the economic outlook had “darkened significantly” and could not rule out a possible global recession next year. German industrial production rose less than expected in May, adding to a run of weak manufacturing data around the world. The dollar is near 20-year highs and expected to remain strong for at least the next three months, making dollar-priced metals costlier for non-U.S. buyers. China announced a raft of new steps to spur consumer demand for cars, saying it would consider extending a tax break on electric vehicles and build more charging stations. Copper output in Peru fell 11.2% in May from a year earlier, the Energy and Mines Ministry said, after a stoppage at the Las Bambas mine and lower-quality production in other deposits.

ENERGY

Oil prices slipped in Asian trade on Friday as recession fears continued to weigh on sentiment, though worries over tight global supplies capped price declines. In recent weeks oil prices have slid, fanning fears of a sharp economic slowdown and a hit to demand for commodities. Traders are watching for possible oil supply disruptions at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which has been told by a Russian court to suspend activity for 30 days. Meanwhile Brent monthly spreads remain in wide backwardation, referring to prompt-month prices trading higher than those for future months. According to the IEA forecast total Natural gas global consumption will contract slightly in this year and see only limited growth in the next three years of about 140 billion cubic meters between 2021 and 2025.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Disclosure

Globe Capital Market Limited (“GCML”) is a Stock Broker registered with BSE, NSE, USE and MSEI in all the major segments viz. Capital, F & O and CDS segments. GCML is also a Depository Participant and registered with both the Depositories viz. CDSL and NSDL. Further, GCML is a SEBI registered Portfolio Manager. GCML includes subsidiaries, group and associate companies, promoters, directors, employees and affiliates.

Globe Commodities Limited, Globe Derivatives and Securities Limited & Globe Fincap Limited are subsidiaries of GCML. Rolex Finvest Private Limited, A to Z Consultants Private Limited, A to Z Venture Capital Limited, M. Agarwal Stock Brokers Private Limited, A M Share Brokers Private Limited, Shri Adinath Advertising Company Pvt. Ltd., Orient Landbase Private Limited, Bolt Synthetic Private Limited, Price ponder Private Limited and Lakshya Impex Private Limited are associates of GCML. Globe Comex International DMCC is step down subsidiary of GCML.

This report has been prepared by GCML and published in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 19 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, for use by the recipient as information only and is not for general circulation or public distribution. This report is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced, copied, redistributed, uploaded, published or made available to others, in any form, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission from GCML. The projections and the forecasts described in this report are based on estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections are forecasts were based may not materialize or may vary significantly from actual results and such variations will likely increase over the period of time. This report should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this report nor anything contained therein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objective, financial situation or needs of any individual in particular. The research analysts of GCML have adhered to the code of conduct under Regulation 24 (2) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. The recipients of this report must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial situation or needs and other factors. The recipients should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for its/ his/ her/their particular circumstances and if necessary, seek professional / financial advice as there is substantial risk of loss. GCML does not take any responsibility thereof.

Any such recipient shall be responsible for conducting his/her/its/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this report and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in securities forming the subject matter of this report. The price and value of the investment referred to in this report and income from them may go up as well as down, and investors may realize profit/loss on their investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the projection.

This report has been prepared by GCML based on the information available in the public domain and other public sources believed to be reliable. Though utmost care has been taken to ensure its accuracy and completeness, no representation or warranty, express or implied is made by GCML that such information is accurate or complete and/or is independently verified. The contents of this report represent the assumptions and projections of GCML and GCML does not guarantee the accuracy or reliability of any projection, assurances or advice made herein. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and/or tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to recipients’ specific circumstances.

Since GCML or its associates are engaged in various financial activities, they might have financial interest or beneficial ownership in various companies including subject company/companies mentioned in the report. GCML or its associates have not received any compensation for investment banking or merchant banking from the subject company in the past 12 months. GCML or its associates might have received any compensation including brokerage services and for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking from the subject company in the past 12 months. It is confirmed that GCML or research analyst or its associates have not managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past 12 months.

Research analyst or GCML or its relatives’/associates’ have no material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. Neither research analyst nor GCML are engaged in market making activity for the subject company. It is confirmed that research analysts do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. It is also confirmed that research analyst have not received any compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months.

No material disciplinary action has been taken on GCML by any regulatory authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities.

The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. This information is subject to change, as per applicable law, without any prior notice. GCML reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement, as may be required, from time to time.

Research analyst or GCML or its relatives’/associates’ do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more in securities of the subject company, at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the document.

Open Account