Commodity Morning Trading Guide | Globe Capital Market LTD.
01-Mar-2024
Commodity Morning Trading Guide

Bullions counter may trade on firm path as yellow metal scaled a one-month high as the dollar slipped after U.S. inflation data came in line with expectations.

Report Overview

BULLIONS

Bullions counter may trade on firm path as yellow metal scaled a one-month high as the dollar slipped after U.S. inflation data came in line with expectations, with traders’ attention turning to further commentary from Federal Reserve officials for cues on interest rate cuts. Overall gold can move in range of 62100-62400 while silver also can move in range of 70200-71400. Data showed the U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index rose by 0.3% in January, while the core PCE price index gained 0.4%, pressuring the dollar, which makes gold cheaper for investors holding other currencies. Although gold is traditionally considered an inflation hedge, higher interest rates to rein in the elevated prices discourage investment in bullion since it pays no interest. Markets are currently pricing in a 62% chance of a Fed rate cut in June, the CME FedWatch Tool showed.

BASE METALS

In base metal counter, Copper can move on upside path in range of 725-730. On the macro front, the U.S. core PCE price index in January recorded an annual rate of 2.8% (expected 2.8%, previous value 2.9%), the smallest increase since March 2021, supporting copper prices. In terms of consumption, as long-term orders are about to be delivered in March and copper prices surged again, downstream consumption remained unchanged. Overall, the supply and demand situation changed little, and the market is waiting for consumption to recover in March. Aluminium may trade on sideways path as it may move in range of 197-203.

ENERGY

Crude oil may trade on mixed path as it may move in range of 6450-6540. Oil prices rose on Friday and were set to end the week modestly higher as talks over a potential ceasefire in Gaza were further complicated by the deaths of more than 100 Palestinians waiting for an aid delivery. President Joe Biden said the U.S. was checking reports of Israeli troops firing on people waiting for food aid in Gaza, saying he believed the deadly incident would complicate talks of a ceasefire. Israel has blamed the deaths on crowds surrounding the aid trucks, saying victims were trampled or run over. On the supply side, a the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pumped 26.42 million barrels per day (bpd) this month, up 90,000 bpd from January. Libyan output rose month-on-month by 150,000 bpd. Natural gas prices may trade on volatile path as it may move in range of 148-160.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Disclosure

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