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Commodity
25-Aug-20261 min readSandeep Globe

Commodity Morning Trading Guide

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Bullions counter may remain on volatile path as gold prices ​hit a more than three-month high on Tuesday, extending a rally driven ‌by the U.S. Treasury’s recent buyback announcement, while investor focus shifted to key inflation data and a speech later this week by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.

MORNING RECOMMENDATION
Our Recommendations
Contracts Previous Close Target Stop loss Recommendation
COPPER (AUG) 1384.15 1389 1380 BUY NEAR @ 1383

BULLIONS

  • Bullions counter may remain on volatile path as gold prices ​hit a more than three-month high on Tuesday, extending a rally driven ‌by the U.S. Treasury’s recent buyback announcement, while investor focus shifted to key inflation data and a speech later this week by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh.
  • Gold (Oct) can move in range of 162300-164000 while silver (Sep) can move in range of 242000-245000.
  • Prices rose sharply last week after the U.S. Treasury Department said it would double the size of liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated notes and bonds.
  • Fed Chairman Warsh’s debut speech at ⁠the annual Jackson Hole conference this week has taken on added weight as traders and analysts look for guidance about the recent jump in bond yields and for reassurance of his independence from the Trump administration.

BASE METALS

  • In base metal counter, Copper prices can trade on mixed path as it can move in range of 1370-1385. Copper edged lower as traders focused on a firmer US dollar and the risk that US interest rates stay higher for longer, even after a spike in London Metal Exchange withdrawal requests hinted at tighter supply.
  • Inventories in LME-approved warehouses have halved since May to less than 210,000 tons as traders shifted copper to the United States ahead of possible tariffs on refined-metal imports.
  • Aluminum prices can trade on mixed path as it may move in range of 342-348. The aluminium market is betting that increased exports from China and Indonesia can offset the loss of production in the Gulf region due to the Iran war.

ENERGY

  • Crude oil may trade on firm path as it can move in range of 8100-8250. Oil prices steadied on Tuesday, after falling more than 2% in the previous session, as investors assessed the impact of harsher U.S. secondary ‌sanctions against Iran.
  • Both contracts fell more than 2% on Monday with U.S. crude oil falling to a one-week low on profit taking after prices rallied over the previous two weeks.
  • S. Treasury Secretary Scott ​Bessent on Monday unveiled an expansion of sanctions to cut off Iran’s economic lifeline, to ⁠force an end to the war between them, telling countries they would need to sever their business ​ties or risk being cut out of the dollar-based financial system.
  • Iran is still maintaining it should have control over the key Strait of Hormuz, which before the war started in February typically carried cargoes equal to about 20% of global oil use.
  • Natural gas may trade with mixed path as it can move in range of 261-268.

 

Important Pivot Levels
Contracts Expiry S2 S1 R1 R2
GOLD OCT 159000 161000 164500 167000
SILVER SEP 237000 240000 248000 252000
CRUDEOIL SEP 8000 8100 8250 8350
NATURAL GAS SEP 245 250 275 280
COPPER AUG 1350 1360 1390 1410
ZINC AUG 375 395 420 425
LEAD AUG 186 192 206 213
ALUMINIUM AUG 340 340 355 365
GUARSEED SEP 6000 6100 6450 6550
COCUDAKL SEP 3000 3100 3500 3600
COMEX($) AND NYMEX($)
GOLD SPOT 4210 4270 4750 4850
SILVER SPOT 63 65 71 73
CRUDE OIL WTI SPOT 77 79 88 90
NG SPOT 2.5 2.4 3.4 3.6
ECONOMIC CALENDER
DATE TIME(IST) COUNTRY ECONOMIC EVENT FORECAST PREVIOUS
25 Aug 2026
17:30 US Building Permits (Jul) 1.443M 1.374M
17:45 US ADP Employment Change Weekly 9.50K
19:30 US CB Consumer Confidence (Aug) 90.3 90.8
19:30 US New Home Sales (Jul) 620K 628K
19:30 US New Home Sales (MoM) (Jul) 1.60%

 

 

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