- Bullions counter may witness upside movement as yellow metal prices climbed to a record high on Monday, driven by safe-haven demand on fresh U.S.-China trade concerns, while broader economic and political uncertainties and expectations of further U.S. interest rate cuts also lent support.
Commodity Morning Trading Guide
Report Overview
BULLIONS
- Bullions counter may witness upside movement as yellow metal prices climbed to a record high on Monday, driven by safe-haven demand on fresh U.S.-China trade concerns, while broader economic and political uncertainties and expectations of further U.S. interest rate cuts also lent support.
- Overall Gold (Dec) can move in range of 121000-125000 while Silver (Dec) also can move in range of 148000-153000.
- Trump on Friday imposed additional tariffs of 100% on Chinese exports and announced new export controls on critical software effective November 1.
- On Sunday, China called Trump’s latest tariffs on Chinese goods hypocritical and defended its curbs on exports of rare earth elements and equipment, but stopped short of imposing new levies on U.S. products.
- Markets are pricing in a near-certain 25-basis-point rate cut this month, with another similar reduction expected in December.
BASE METALS
- In base metal counter, Copper (Oct) prices can trade on firm path as it can move in range of 978-996.
- Aluminum prices can trade on mixed path as it may move in range of 260-266.while Zinc may move on upside path as it may trade in range of 292-297. Aluminum rose as much as 2% to $2,807.50, the highest since June 2022, and was last at $2,802. Aluminum has applications across several fast-growing sectors. Alongside copper, lithium and steel, it is one of the four key metals needed for the transition to new energy sources.
- Aluminum has been in surplus for most of the past two decades as China—the world’s biggest supplier and consumer of the metal—aggressively added production capacity using cheap coal-fired power.
ENERGY
- Crude oil may trade with mixed path as it can move in range of 5230-5400. Oil prices clawed back some gains on Monday after hitting five-month lows in the previous session as investors hoped potential talks between the presidents of the U.S. and China could ease trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies and oil consumers.
- U.S.-China trade tensions flared up last week after China expanded its rare earth export controls and drew a response from U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday to impose 100% tariffs on China’s U.S.-bound exports, along with new export controls on “any and all critical software” by November 1.
- Natural gas (Oct) may move on volatile path as it can move in range of 272-286.
- In the Middle East, Trump declared on Sunday that the Gaza war has ended as he heads to Israel ahead of the expected release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners as part of the fragile ceasefire he brokered.
Disclosure
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This report has been prepared by GCML and published in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 19 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, for use by the recipient as information only and is not for general circulation or public distribution. This report is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced, copied, redistributed, uploaded, published or made available to others, in any form, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission from GCML. The projections and the forecasts described in this report are based on estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections are forecasts were based may not materialize or may vary significantly from actual results and such variations will likely increase over the period of time. This report should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this report nor anything contained therein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objective, financial situation or needs of any individual in particular. The research analysts of GCML have adhered to the code of conduct under Regulation 24 (2) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. The recipients of this report must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial situation or needs and other factors. The recipients should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for its/ his/ her/their particular circumstances and if necessary, seek professional / financial advice as there is substantial risk of loss. GCML does not take any responsibility thereof.
Any such recipient shall be responsible for conducting his/her/its/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this report and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in securities forming the subject matter of this report. The price and value of the investment referred to in this report and income from them may go up as well as down, and investors may realize profit/loss on their investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the projection.
AY Securities and Commodities Limited, Globe Derivatives and Securities Limited & Globe Fincap Limited are subsidiaries of GCML. AtoZFinstock Private Limited, A to Z Consultants Private Limited, A to Z Venture Capital Limited, M. Agarwal Stock Brokers Private Limited, A M Share Brokers Private Limited, Shri Adinath Advertising Company Pvt. Ltd., Orient Landbase Private Limited, Bolt Synthetic Private Limited, Price ponder Private Limited, LakshyaImpex Private Limited and Launchpad Fintech Private Limited are associates of GCML.
This report has been prepared by GCML and published in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 19 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, for use by the recipient as information only and is not for general circulation or public distribution. This report is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced, copied, redistributed, uploaded, published or made available to others, in any form, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission from GCML. The projections and the forecasts described in this report are based on estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections are forecasts were based may not materialize or may vary significantly from actual results and such variations will likely increase over the period of time. This report should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this report nor anything contained therein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objective, financial situation or needs of any individual in particular. The research analysts of GCML have adhered to the code of conduct under Regulation 24 (2) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. The recipients of this report must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial situation or needs and other factors. The recipients should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for its/ his/ her/their particular circumstances and if necessary, seek professional / financial advice as there is substantial risk of loss. GCML does not take any responsibility thereof.
Any such recipient shall be responsible for conducting his/her/its/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this report and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in securities forming the subject matter of this report. The price and value of the investment referred to in this report and income from them may go up as well as down, and investors may realize profit/loss on their investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the projection.
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