- Bullions counter may trade on positive path as yellow metal held firm near an all-time high on Monday, inching closer to a key $3,600 level, bolstered by mounting expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut this month following a weaker-than-expected jobs report last week.
Commodity Morning Trading Guide
Report Overview
BULLIONS
- Bullions counter may trade on positive path as yellow metal held firm near an all-time high on Monday, inching closer to a key $3,600 level, bolstered by mounting expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut this month following a weaker-than-expected jobs report last week.
- Overall Gold (Oct) can move in range of 106500-108000 while Silver (Dec) also can move in range of 122000-125000. China’s central bank added gold to its reserves in August, extending purchases of bullion into a 10th straight month.
- U.S. job growth weakened sharply in August, and the unemployment rate increased to a nearly four-year high of 4.3%, confirming that labor market conditions were softening and sealing the case for a Fed rate cut next week.
- Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and weigh on the dollar, making gold cheaper for investors holding other currencies.
BASE METALS
- In base metal counter, Copper prices can trade on upside path as it can move in range of 896-905. Copper prices rose on Friday as the US dollar weakened and hopes grew for stronger demand in China, ahead of the US jobs report later in the session which may provide further clarity on the path of US interest rates.
- Aluminum prices can trade on mixed path as it may move in range of 252-257.while Zinc may move on volatile path as it may trade in range of 273-277.
- Highlighting the continued tightness in copper concentrate supplies that is pressuring Asian smelters, JX Advanced Metals, one of Japan’s largest copper smelters, said it may cut production by tens of thousands of tons in the fiscal year ending March.
ENERGY
- Crude oil may witness lower level buying as it can move in range of 5460-5650. Oil prices rose on Monday in early trade, paring last week’s losses, after OPEC+ agreed over the weekend to raise output further but at a slower pace from October due to an anticipated weakening of global demand.
- OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other allies, has agreed to further raise oil production from October as its leader Saudi Arabia pushes to regain market share, while slowing the pace of increases compared with previous months.
- OPEC+ has been increasing production since April after years of cuts to support the oil market, but the Sunday decision to further boost output came as a surprise amid a likely looming oil glut in the northern hemisphere winter months.
- Natural gas may remain on upside path as it can move in range of 270-281.
Disclosure
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AY Securities and Commodities Limited, Globe Derivatives and Securities Limited & Globe Fincap Limited are subsidiaries of GCML. AtoZFinstock Private Limited, A to Z Consultants Private Limited, A to Z Venture Capital Limited, M. Agarwal Stock Brokers Private Limited, A M Share Brokers Private Limited, Shri Adinath Advertising Company Pvt. Ltd., Orient Landbase Private Limited, Bolt Synthetic Private Limited, Price ponder Private Limited, LakshyaImpex Private Limited and Launchpad Fintech Private Limited are associates of GCML.
This report has been prepared by GCML and published in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 19 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, for use by the recipient as information only and is not for general circulation or public distribution. This report is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced, copied, redistributed, uploaded, published or made available to others, in any form, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission from GCML. The projections and the forecasts described in this report are based on estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections are forecasts were based may not materialize or may vary significantly from actual results and such variations will likely increase over the period of time. This report should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this report nor anything contained therein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objective, financial situation or needs of any individual in particular. The research analysts of GCML have adhered to the code of conduct under Regulation 24 (2) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. The recipients of this report must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial situation or needs and other factors. The recipients should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for its/ his/ her/their particular circumstances and if necessary, seek professional / financial advice as there is substantial risk of loss. GCML does not take any responsibility thereof.
Any such recipient shall be responsible for conducting his/her/its/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this report and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in securities forming the subject matter of this report. The price and value of the investment referred to in this report and income from them may go up as well as down, and investors may realize profit/loss on their investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the projection.
AY Securities and Commodities Limited, Globe Derivatives and Securities Limited & Globe Fincap Limited are subsidiaries of GCML. AtoZFinstock Private Limited, A to Z Consultants Private Limited, A to Z Venture Capital Limited, M. Agarwal Stock Brokers Private Limited, A M Share Brokers Private Limited, Shri Adinath Advertising Company Pvt. Ltd., Orient Landbase Private Limited, Bolt Synthetic Private Limited, Price ponder Private Limited, LakshyaImpex Private Limited and Launchpad Fintech Private Limited are associates of GCML.
This report has been prepared by GCML and published in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 19 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, for use by the recipient as information only and is not for general circulation or public distribution. This report is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced, copied, redistributed, uploaded, published or made available to others, in any form, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission from GCML. The projections and the forecasts described in this report are based on estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections are forecasts were based may not materialize or may vary significantly from actual results and such variations will likely increase over the period of time. This report should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this report nor anything contained therein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objective, financial situation or needs of any individual in particular. The research analysts of GCML have adhered to the code of conduct under Regulation 24 (2) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. The recipients of this report must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial situation or needs and other factors. The recipients should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for its/ his/ her/their particular circumstances and if necessary, seek professional / financial advice as there is substantial risk of loss. GCML does not take any responsibility thereof.
Any such recipient shall be responsible for conducting his/her/its/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this report and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in securities forming the subject matter of this report. The price and value of the investment referred to in this report and income from them may go up as well as down, and investors may realize profit/loss on their investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the projection.
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