Bullions counter may trade on narrow range as yellow metal prices inched higher on Thursday, continuing its momentum from 2024, while traders sought more clarity on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory and President-elect Donald Trump’s policies.
Commodity Morning Trading Guide
Report Overview
BULLIONS
- Bullions counter may trade on narrow range as yellow metal prices inched higher on Thursday, continuing its momentum from 2024, while traders sought more clarity on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory and President-elect Donald Trump’s policies.
- Overall gold (Feb) can move in range of 76800-77400 while silver (Mar) also can move in range of 87500 -89000.
- The market now awaits a fresh set of catalysts, including a slew of U.S. economic data due next week that could influence the interest rate outlook for 2025, and Trump’s tariff policies.
- According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in just an 11.2% chance of a rate cut in January.
BASE METALS
- In base metal counter, Copper prices can trade on mixed path as it can move in range of 790-805. Most base metals rose on Thursday, the first trading session of 2025, buoyed by expectations of more proactive Chinese policies to promote growth, although gains were capped by a stronger U.S. dollar.
- Chinese President Xi Jinping said on Tuesday that the country’s gross domestic product was expected to exceed 130 trillion yuan ($17.8 trillion) in 2024. He also said the country would implement more proactive policies to promote growth in 2025.
- On the macroeconomic side, the U.S. Federal Reserve has maintained high interest rates, and the U.S. dollar index has reached a two-year high, both of which have capped gains in copper prices
- Aluminium prices can trade on mixed path as it may move in range of 238-245.while lead may also move in range of 175-180.
ENERGY
- Crude oil may trade on sideways path as it can move in range of 6150-6250. Oil prices nudged higher on Thursday, the first day of trade for 2025, as investors returning from holidays cautiously eyed a recovery in China’s economy and fuel demand following a pledge by President Xi Jinping to promote growth.
- In an official survey released on Tuesday, China’s manufacturing activity barely grew in December though services and construction recovered. The data suggested policy stimulus is trickling into some sectors as China braces for new trade risks from tariffs proposed by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.
- Investors are also awaiting weekly U.S. oil stocks data from the Energy Information Administration which has been delayed until Thursday due to the New Year holiday.
- Natural gas may trade on subdued path as it can move in range of 300-312.
Disclosure
Globe Capital Market Limited (“GCML”) is a Stock Broker registered with BSE, NSE, MCX, NCDEX, and MSEI in all the major segments viz. Capital, F & O and CDS segments. GCML is also a Depository Participant and registered with both the Depositories viz. CDSL and NSDL. Further, GCML is a SEBI registered Portfolio Manager and Research Analyst. GCML includes subsidiaries, group and associate companies, promoters, directors, employees and affiliates.
AY Securities and Commodities Limited, Globe Derivatives and Securities Limited & Globe Fincap Limited are subsidiaries of GCML. AtoZFinstock Private Limited, A to Z Consultants Private Limited, A to Z Venture Capital Limited, M. Agarwal Stock Brokers Private Limited, A M Share Brokers Private Limited, Shri Adinath Advertising Company Pvt. Ltd., Orient Landbase Private Limited, Bolt Synthetic Private Limited, Price ponder Private Limited, LakshyaImpex Private Limited and Launchpad Fintech Private Limited are associates of GCML.
This report has been prepared by GCML and published in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 19 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, for use by the recipient as information only and is not for general circulation or public distribution. This report is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced, copied, redistributed, uploaded, published or made available to others, in any form, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission from GCML. The projections and the forecasts described in this report are based on estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections are forecasts were based may not materialize or may vary significantly from actual results and such variations will likely increase over the period of time. This report should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this report nor anything contained therein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objective, financial situation or needs of any individual in particular. The research analysts of GCML have adhered to the code of conduct under Regulation 24 (2) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. The recipients of this report must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial situation or needs and other factors. The recipients should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for its/ his/ her/their particular circumstances and if necessary, seek professional / financial advice as there is substantial risk of loss. GCML does not take any responsibility thereof.
Any such recipient shall be responsible for conducting his/her/its/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this report and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in securities forming the subject matter of this report. The price and value of the investment referred to in this report and income from them may go up as well as down, and investors may realize profit/loss on their investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the projection.
AY Securities and Commodities Limited, Globe Derivatives and Securities Limited & Globe Fincap Limited are subsidiaries of GCML. AtoZFinstock Private Limited, A to Z Consultants Private Limited, A to Z Venture Capital Limited, M. Agarwal Stock Brokers Private Limited, A M Share Brokers Private Limited, Shri Adinath Advertising Company Pvt. Ltd., Orient Landbase Private Limited, Bolt Synthetic Private Limited, Price ponder Private Limited, LakshyaImpex Private Limited and Launchpad Fintech Private Limited are associates of GCML.
This report has been prepared by GCML and published in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 19 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, for use by the recipient as information only and is not for general circulation or public distribution. This report is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced, copied, redistributed, uploaded, published or made available to others, in any form, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission from GCML. The projections and the forecasts described in this report are based on estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections are forecasts were based may not materialize or may vary significantly from actual results and such variations will likely increase over the period of time. This report should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this report nor anything contained therein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objective, financial situation or needs of any individual in particular. The research analysts of GCML have adhered to the code of conduct under Regulation 24 (2) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. The recipients of this report must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial situation or needs and other factors. The recipients should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for its/ his/ her/their particular circumstances and if necessary, seek professional / financial advice as there is substantial risk of loss. GCML does not take any responsibility thereof.
Any such recipient shall be responsible for conducting his/her/its/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this report and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in securities forming the subject matter of this report. The price and value of the investment referred to in this report and income from them may go up as well as down, and investors may realize profit/loss on their investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the projection.