Bullions counter may trade on upside path as yellow metal prices hit a fresh high on Friday and were set for a fifth straight weekly gain, as market participants worried about U.S. tariff threats while awaiting a key inflation report to assess the Federal Reserve’s policy path.
Commodity Morning Trading Guide
Report Overview
BULLIONS
- Bullions counter may trade on upside path as yellow metal prices hit a fresh high on Friday and were set for a fifth straight weekly gain, as market participants worried about U.S. tariff threats while awaiting a key inflation report to assess the Federal Reserve’s policy path.
- Overall gold (Apr) can move in range of 82000-82700 while silver (Mar) also can move in range of 92500 -94500.
- President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the United States would put a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, repeating his warning to the two countries.
- Amid concerns about Trump’s tariff plans, 12.9 million troy ounces of gold have been delivered to COMEX-approved warehouses since late November, raising stocks there by 73.5% to 30.4 million ounces, the highest since July 2022.
- The Fed kept interest rates steady on Wednesday and Chair Jerome Powell said inflation and jobs data would determine when another easing would come.
BASE METALS
- In base metal counter, Copper prices can trade on volatile path as it can move in range of 823-830. U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to impose tariffs on copper, steel, aluminum, and other goods weighed on market sentiment, raising concerns over potential disruptions in global trade. Meanwhile, traders remained cautious ahead of the February 1 deadline for new U.S. tariffs targeting China, the largest copper consumer. Additionally, Chinese manufacturing activity unexpectedly contracted in January, further dampening demand expectations. With China’s markets closed for the Lunar New Year, trading volumes are expected to remain subdued.
- Aluminum prices can trade on mixed path as it may move in range of 248-256.while lead may also move in range of 176-182.
- The global refined copper market showed a deficit of 131,000 metric tons in November, compared to 30,000 metric tons in October, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG).
ENERGY
- Crude oil may trade on firm path as it can move in range of 6250-6370. Oil prices rose on Friday as markets weigh the threat of tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on Mexico and Canada, the two largest crude exporters to the U.S. that could take effect this weekend.
- Trump has threatened to impose a 25% tariff as early as Saturday on Canadian and Mexican exports to the United States if those two countries do not end shipments of fentanyl across U.S. borders.
- In 2023, the last full year of data, Canada exported 3.9 million barrels per day of crude to the U.S., out of 6.5 million bpd of total imports, while Mexico exported 733,000 bpd, according to the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the Department of Energy.
- Natural gas may trade on mixed path as it can move in range of 260-280.
Disclosure
Globe Capital Market Limited (“GCML”) is a Stock Broker registered with BSE, NSE, MCX, NCDEX, and MSEI in all the major segments viz. Capital, F & O and CDS segments. GCML is also a Depository Participant and registered with both the Depositories viz. CDSL and NSDL. Further, GCML is a SEBI registered Portfolio Manager and Research Analyst. GCML includes subsidiaries, group and associate companies, promoters, directors, employees and affiliates.
AY Securities and Commodities Limited, Globe Derivatives and Securities Limited & Globe Fincap Limited are subsidiaries of GCML. AtoZFinstock Private Limited, A to Z Consultants Private Limited, A to Z Venture Capital Limited, M. Agarwal Stock Brokers Private Limited, A M Share Brokers Private Limited, Shri Adinath Advertising Company Pvt. Ltd., Orient Landbase Private Limited, Bolt Synthetic Private Limited, Price ponder Private Limited, LakshyaImpex Private Limited and Launchpad Fintech Private Limited are associates of GCML.
This report has been prepared by GCML and published in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 19 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, for use by the recipient as information only and is not for general circulation or public distribution. This report is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced, copied, redistributed, uploaded, published or made available to others, in any form, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission from GCML. The projections and the forecasts described in this report are based on estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections are forecasts were based may not materialize or may vary significantly from actual results and such variations will likely increase over the period of time. This report should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this report nor anything contained therein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objective, financial situation or needs of any individual in particular. The research analysts of GCML have adhered to the code of conduct under Regulation 24 (2) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. The recipients of this report must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial situation or needs and other factors. The recipients should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for its/ his/ her/their particular circumstances and if necessary, seek professional / financial advice as there is substantial risk of loss. GCML does not take any responsibility thereof.
Any such recipient shall be responsible for conducting his/her/its/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this report and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in securities forming the subject matter of this report. The price and value of the investment referred to in this report and income from them may go up as well as down, and investors may realize profit/loss on their investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the projection.
AY Securities and Commodities Limited, Globe Derivatives and Securities Limited & Globe Fincap Limited are subsidiaries of GCML. AtoZFinstock Private Limited, A to Z Consultants Private Limited, A to Z Venture Capital Limited, M. Agarwal Stock Brokers Private Limited, A M Share Brokers Private Limited, Shri Adinath Advertising Company Pvt. Ltd., Orient Landbase Private Limited, Bolt Synthetic Private Limited, Price ponder Private Limited, LakshyaImpex Private Limited and Launchpad Fintech Private Limited are associates of GCML.
This report has been prepared by GCML and published in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 19 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, for use by the recipient as information only and is not for general circulation or public distribution. This report is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced, copied, redistributed, uploaded, published or made available to others, in any form, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission from GCML. The projections and the forecasts described in this report are based on estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections are forecasts were based may not materialize or may vary significantly from actual results and such variations will likely increase over the period of time. This report should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this report nor anything contained therein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objective, financial situation or needs of any individual in particular. The research analysts of GCML have adhered to the code of conduct under Regulation 24 (2) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. The recipients of this report must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial situation or needs and other factors. The recipients should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for its/ his/ her/their particular circumstances and if necessary, seek professional / financial advice as there is substantial risk of loss. GCML does not take any responsibility thereof.
Any such recipient shall be responsible for conducting his/her/its/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this report and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in securities forming the subject matter of this report. The price and value of the investment referred to in this report and income from them may go up as well as down, and investors may realize profit/loss on their investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the projection.