- Bullions counter may trade with weak bias as yellow metal fell on Friday, heading for a second weekly loss as a slight uptick in the dollar and the Israel-Iran truce weighed on prices, with markets eyeing U.S. inflation data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory.
Commodity Morning Trading Guide
Report Overview
BULLIONS
- Bullions counter may trade with weak bias as yellow metal fell on Friday, heading for a second weekly loss as a slight uptick in the dollar and the Israel-Iran truce weighed on prices, with markets eyeing U.S. inflation data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory.
- Overall gold (Aug) can move in range of 95300-96700 while silver (Jul) also can move in range of 104500-107000.
- This week’s dip is due to the Israel-Iran peace deal, said Brian Lan, managing director at GoldSilver Central, Singapore, adding that prices are consolidating with a slight downward bias and likely to stay around current levels.
- Iranians and Israelis have sought to resume normal life after 12 days of the most intense confrontation ever between the two foes and a ceasefire that took effect Tuesday.
BASE METALS
- In base metal counter, Copper prices can trade on positive path as it can move in range of 886-898. The premium for the cash copper contract over the three-month forward dropped to $94 a tonne on Wednesday from $280 on Monday as news of the exports filtered through to the market.
- Copper for delivery in September rose more than 3% to a high of $5.1650 per pound or $11,367 per tonne in early trading on the Comex market on Thursday as US markets pull in buyers ahead of likely tariffs.
- Aluminum prices can trade on upside path as it may move in range of 245-249.while lead may also move in range of 177-183.
- Like other markets, the copper price has been on a wild ride in 2025, hitting all-time highs at the end of March only to come dangerously close to crashing through $4.00 barely a fortnight later.
ENERGY
- Crude oil may trade on mixed path as it can move in range of 5550-5690. Oil was set to fall this week with the Iran-Israel ceasefire holding and easing concerns over Middle East supply risks, although prices rose on Friday as the summer driving season ramped up fuel demand in the United States.
- Oil futures hit their lowest in more than a week on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said a ceasefire had been agreed between Iran and Israel.
- Oil prices inched up on Thursday, though, as U.S. government data showed crude oil and fuel inventories last week, with refining activity and demand rising.
- Also supporting oil prices, the dollar index sank to a three-year low on a report that President Donald Trump was planning to choose the next Federal Reserve chief early, fuelling fresh bets on U.S. interest rate cuts.
- Natural gas may trade on firm path as it can move in range of 300-310.
Disclosure
Globe Capital Market Limited (“GCML”) is a Stock Broker registered with BSE, NSE, MCX, NCDEX, and MSEI in all the major segments viz. Capital, F & O and CDS segments. GCML is also a Depository Participant and registered with both the Depositories viz. CDSL and NSDL. Further, GCML is a SEBI registered Portfolio Manager and Research Analyst. GCML includes subsidiaries, group and associate companies, promoters, directors, employees and affiliates.
AY Securities and Commodities Limited, Globe Derivatives and Securities Limited & Globe Fincap Limited are subsidiaries of GCML. AtoZFinstock Private Limited, A to Z Consultants Private Limited, A to Z Venture Capital Limited, M. Agarwal Stock Brokers Private Limited, A M Share Brokers Private Limited, Shri Adinath Advertising Company Pvt. Ltd., Orient Landbase Private Limited, Bolt Synthetic Private Limited, Price ponder Private Limited, LakshyaImpex Private Limited and Launchpad Fintech Private Limited are associates of GCML.
This report has been prepared by GCML and published in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 19 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, for use by the recipient as information only and is not for general circulation or public distribution. This report is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced, copied, redistributed, uploaded, published or made available to others, in any form, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission from GCML. The projections and the forecasts described in this report are based on estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections are forecasts were based may not materialize or may vary significantly from actual results and such variations will likely increase over the period of time. This report should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this report nor anything contained therein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objective, financial situation or needs of any individual in particular. The research analysts of GCML have adhered to the code of conduct under Regulation 24 (2) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. The recipients of this report must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial situation or needs and other factors. The recipients should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for its/ his/ her/their particular circumstances and if necessary, seek professional / financial advice as there is substantial risk of loss. GCML does not take any responsibility thereof.
Any such recipient shall be responsible for conducting his/her/its/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this report and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in securities forming the subject matter of this report. The price and value of the investment referred to in this report and income from them may go up as well as down, and investors may realize profit/loss on their investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the projection.
AY Securities and Commodities Limited, Globe Derivatives and Securities Limited & Globe Fincap Limited are subsidiaries of GCML. AtoZFinstock Private Limited, A to Z Consultants Private Limited, A to Z Venture Capital Limited, M. Agarwal Stock Brokers Private Limited, A M Share Brokers Private Limited, Shri Adinath Advertising Company Pvt. Ltd., Orient Landbase Private Limited, Bolt Synthetic Private Limited, Price ponder Private Limited, LakshyaImpex Private Limited and Launchpad Fintech Private Limited are associates of GCML.
This report has been prepared by GCML and published in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 19 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, for use by the recipient as information only and is not for general circulation or public distribution. This report is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced, copied, redistributed, uploaded, published or made available to others, in any form, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission from GCML. The projections and the forecasts described in this report are based on estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections are forecasts were based may not materialize or may vary significantly from actual results and such variations will likely increase over the period of time. This report should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this report nor anything contained therein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objective, financial situation or needs of any individual in particular. The research analysts of GCML have adhered to the code of conduct under Regulation 24 (2) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. The recipients of this report must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial situation or needs and other factors. The recipients should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for its/ his/ her/their particular circumstances and if necessary, seek professional / financial advice as there is substantial risk of loss. GCML does not take any responsibility thereof.
Any such recipient shall be responsible for conducting his/her/its/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this report and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in securities forming the subject matter of this report. The price and value of the investment referred to in this report and income from them may go up as well as down, and investors may realize profit/loss on their investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the projection.