- Bullions counter may trade on firm path as yellow metal rose more than 1% on Monday as a pause in Middle East hostilities sent oil prices lower, alleviating some inflation concerns, while investors awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision.
Commodity Morning Trading Guide
MORNING RECOMMENDATION
BULLIONS
- Bullions counter may trade on firm path as yellow metal rose more than 1% on Monday as a pause in Middle East hostilities sent oil prices lower, alleviating some inflation concerns, while investors awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision.
- Gold (Oct) can move in range of 143000-145600 while silver (Sep) can move in range of 222000-227000.
- Gold is a clear beneficiary today of the dual price action in oil and the U.S. dollar, both of which have dropped on de-escalation hopes between the U.S. and Iran.
- Iran will halt its own attacks as long as the United States does the same, a senior Iranian official told. The development comes as the United States pressed pause on its bombing campaign after President Donald Trump’s advisers told him they were running out of targets and expressed worries about depleting the U.S. arsenal.
BASE METALS
- In base metal counter, Copper prices can trade on firm path as it can move in range of 1330-1345.
- One of the debates since the start of the Iran war has been whether crude oil futures are accurately reflecting the stresses in physical markets for both oil and refined products, or if they are blindly optimistic that peace is around the corner.
- Meanwhile, Chile raised its 2026 average copper price forecast to $5.90 per pound, citing favorable market conditions, although production at major mines including Codelco, Escondida, and Collahuasi declined sharply.
- Aluminum prices can trade on lower path as it may move in range of 340-346.
ENERGY
- Crude oil may trade on weaker path as it can move in range of 8000-8400. Oil prices tumbled 4% on Monday after the U.S. and Iran paused strikes over the weekend after two weeks of attacks, raising hopes of a diplomatic solution that would de-escalate the conflict and allow shipping to resume in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Brent had reached $100 per barrel as the conflict, which reduced oil shipments via the Strait of Hormuz, spilled over to the Red Sea, hindering exports from the world’s top exporter, Saudi Arabia, via the Bab el-Mandeb strait to Asia.
- In addition, ship traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb strait fell on Sunday after Yemeni Houthis attacked Saudi oil installations along the Red Sea coast, although a third Chinese supertanker exited via the Bab el-Mandeb strait.
- Natural gas may trade on lower path as it can move in range of 265-280.
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