Bullions counter may trade on upside path as yellow metal prices edged higher on Tuesday, as investors braced for a less aggressive path of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve next year, in a holiday-truncated trading week.
Commodity Morning Trading Guide
Report Overview
BULLIONS
- Bullions counter may trade on upside path as yellow metal prices edged higher on Tuesday, as investors braced for a less aggressive path of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve next year, in a holiday-truncated trading week.
- Overall gold (Feb) can move in range of 76000-76500 while silver (Mar) also can move in range of 88000 -90000.
- Investors are now focused on how rapidly or deeply the U.S. central bank would cut rates in 2025. The Fed continued reductions in December after a period of aggressive rate hikes but signaled fewer cuts next year.
- While a benign U.S. inflation reading on Friday eased some concerns about the pace of cuts next year, markets are still pricing in just about 35 basis points worth of easing for 2025.
- The bullion scaled multiple record highs this year, rising nearly 27% so far, to mark its best annual performance since 2010, driven by robust central bank buying, geopolitical tensions and monetary policy easing by major banks.
BASE METALS
- In base metal counter, Copper prices can trade on firm path as it can move in range of 795-820. The global refined copper market showed a 41,000 metric tons deficit in October, compared with a 136,000 metric tons deficit in September, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly bulletin.
- Aluminium prices can trade on mixed path as it may move in range of 235-240.while lead may also move in range of 175-180.
- The International Copper Study Group said on Friday that the global refined copper market was in a 287,000 metric ton surplus for the first 10 months of 2024.
- The U.S. dollar has appreciated nearly 7% this year, creating significant headwinds for growth-dependent metals, but most, with the exception of nickel and lead, posted gains.
ENERGY
- Crude oil may trade on mixed path as it can move in range of 5900-6000. Oil prices were up on Tuesday in thin trade ahead of the Christmas Day holiday, with prices supported by U.S. economic data and rising oil demand in India, the world’s third-largest oil importer.
- New orders for key U.S.-manufactured capital goods surged in November amid strong demand for machinery, while new home sales also rebounded in a sign that the U.S. economy is on a solid footing towards the year-end.
- In the shorter term, traders are looking for indications of U.S. demand from the crude oil and fuel stockpiles data due from the American Petroleum Institute industry group later on Tuesday.
- Meanwhile crude oil imports by India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, rose 2.6% year-on-year to 19.07 million metric tons in November, government data showed, on the back of strong demand amid rising economic and travel activity.
- Natural gas may trade on upside path as it can move in range of 280-300.
Disclosure
Globe Capital Market Limited (“GCML”) is a Stock Broker registered with BSE, NSE, MCX, NCDEX, and MSEI in all the major segments viz. Capital, F & O and CDS segments. GCML is also a Depository Participant and registered with both the Depositories viz. CDSL and NSDL. Further, GCML is a SEBI registered Portfolio Manager and Research Analyst. GCML includes subsidiaries, group and associate companies, promoters, directors, employees and affiliates.
AY Securities and Commodities Limited, Globe Derivatives and Securities Limited & Globe Fincap Limited are subsidiaries of GCML. AtoZFinstock Private Limited, A to Z Consultants Private Limited, A to Z Venture Capital Limited, M. Agarwal Stock Brokers Private Limited, A M Share Brokers Private Limited, Shri Adinath Advertising Company Pvt. Ltd., Orient Landbase Private Limited, Bolt Synthetic Private Limited, Price ponder Private Limited, LakshyaImpex Private Limited and Launchpad Fintech Private Limited are associates of GCML.
This report has been prepared by GCML and published in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 19 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, for use by the recipient as information only and is not for general circulation or public distribution. This report is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced, copied, redistributed, uploaded, published or made available to others, in any form, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission from GCML. The projections and the forecasts described in this report are based on estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections are forecasts were based may not materialize or may vary significantly from actual results and such variations will likely increase over the period of time. This report should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this report nor anything contained therein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objective, financial situation or needs of any individual in particular. The research analysts of GCML have adhered to the code of conduct under Regulation 24 (2) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. The recipients of this report must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial situation or needs and other factors. The recipients should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for its/ his/ her/their particular circumstances and if necessary, seek professional / financial advice as there is substantial risk of loss. GCML does not take any responsibility thereof.
Any such recipient shall be responsible for conducting his/her/its/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this report and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in securities forming the subject matter of this report. The price and value of the investment referred to in this report and income from them may go up as well as down, and investors may realize profit/loss on their investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the projection.
AY Securities and Commodities Limited, Globe Derivatives and Securities Limited & Globe Fincap Limited are subsidiaries of GCML. AtoZFinstock Private Limited, A to Z Consultants Private Limited, A to Z Venture Capital Limited, M. Agarwal Stock Brokers Private Limited, A M Share Brokers Private Limited, Shri Adinath Advertising Company Pvt. Ltd., Orient Landbase Private Limited, Bolt Synthetic Private Limited, Price ponder Private Limited, LakshyaImpex Private Limited and Launchpad Fintech Private Limited are associates of GCML.
This report has been prepared by GCML and published in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 19 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, for use by the recipient as information only and is not for general circulation or public distribution. This report is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced, copied, redistributed, uploaded, published or made available to others, in any form, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission from GCML. The projections and the forecasts described in this report are based on estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections are forecasts were based may not materialize or may vary significantly from actual results and such variations will likely increase over the period of time. This report should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this report nor anything contained therein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objective, financial situation or needs of any individual in particular. The research analysts of GCML have adhered to the code of conduct under Regulation 24 (2) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. The recipients of this report must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial situation or needs and other factors. The recipients should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for its/ his/ her/their particular circumstances and if necessary, seek professional / financial advice as there is substantial risk of loss. GCML does not take any responsibility thereof.
Any such recipient shall be responsible for conducting his/her/its/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this report and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in securities forming the subject matter of this report. The price and value of the investment referred to in this report and income from them may go up as well as down, and investors may realize profit/loss on their investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the projection.