Commodity Morning Trading Guide | Globe Capital Market LTD.
21-May-2024
Commodity Morning Trading Guide

Bullions counter may witness some profit booking at higher levels as yellow metal hovered near a record peak hit in the previous session as recent economic data boosted bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve would start cutting interest rates later this year.

Report Overview

BULLIONS
Bullions counter may witness some profit booking at higher levels as yellow metal hovered near a record peak hit in the previous session as recent economic data boosted bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve would start cutting interest rates later this year. Overall gold can move in range of 73200-74100 while silver also can move in range of 92000-95000. Data showed that U.S. consumer prices increased less than expected in April, suggesting that inflation resumed its downward trend, boosting expectations for a September rate cut. However, Fed officials are not ready to say inflation is heading to the U.S. central bank’s 2% target despite last week’s cooling data, with several calling for continued policy caution. Investors’ risk appetite shows no sign of waning, which in the absence of any major market-moving economic data or events in Asia should pave the way for further gains across the continent when trading gets underway.
BASE METALS
In base metal counter, Copper prices can trade on subdued path as it can move range of 920-940. Copper prices fell on Tuesday, dragged down by a firmer dollar and as traders took a breather after prices hit a record high in the previous session. The rally was triggered by short covering on the U.S. Comex exchange that created momentum for speculators and funds to continue to pour money into the metal, betting on its increasing usage in the global green energy transition. However, on the physical market, copper demand is not as red hot. The usual premium that Chinese consumers and traders pay to import copper has switched to zero and even below zero since mid-May, the lowest since at least 2012. Meanwhile, copper stocks in SHFE warehouses have been elevated since February and were at 290,376 tons on Friday, up from 33,130 tons at the beginning of the year. Aluminium may move sideways in range of 238-243.
ENERGY
Crude oil may trade in mixed path as it may move in range of 6500-6700. Oil prices fell in early Asian trade on Tuesday, with investors anticipating higher-for-longer U.S. inflation and interest rates will depress consumer and industrial demand. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on Monday it was too early to tell if the inflation slowdown is “long lasting,” while Vice Chair Michael Barr said restrictive policy needs more time. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said it will “take a while” for the central bank to be confident that price growth slowdown is sustainable. On the other hand, the market appeared little affected by political uncertainty in two major oil-producing countries. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, a hardliner and potential successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in a helicopter crash, while Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman deferred a trip to Japan because of the health of his father, the king. Natural gas prices trade on firm path as it may move in range of 224-235.

Disclosure

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