Commodity Morning Trading Guide | Globe Capital Market LTD.
21-Jun-2024
Commodity Morning Trading Guide

Bullions counter may trade on firm path as yellow metal prices were flat on Friday but were on track for their second straight weekly gain as weak economic data from the U.S. boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates this year.

Report Overview

BULLIONS
Bullions counter may trade on firm path as yellow metal prices were flat on Friday but were on track for their second straight weekly gain as weak economic data from the U.S. boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates this year. Overall gold can move in range of 72400-72900 while silver also can move in range of 90500-92000. Traders are currently pricing in about a 64% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, according to CME FedWatch Tool. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. First-time applications for U.S. unemployment benefits fell moderately last week, while new housing construction dropped to the lowest level in nearly four years in May, suggesting that economic activity remained moderate in the second quarter. Last week’s data showed a moderation in the labour market and price pressures, which were followed by soft retail sales data on Tuesday, suggesting that economic activity remained lackluster in the second quarter.
BASE METALS
In base metal counter, Copper prices can trade on mixed path as it can move range of 853-857. On the fundamentals side, on the supply side, after delivery, smelters’ willingness to ship to warehouses decreased, while there were warrants being offered for sale, increasing supply. On the consumption side, as copper prices rose again, downstream consumption was suppressed, making it easier for premiums to fall than rise. he biggest glut of copper in four years has built up in Chinese warehouses, after a price spike and tepid consumer demand prompted manufacturers in Asia’s largest economy to pull back on buying the world’s most important industrial metal. Aluminium may trade on sideways path as it can move in range of 228-235.
ENERGY
Crude oil may trade on volatile path as it may move in range of 6740-6870. Crude oil futures slid in early trade on Friday on the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates in Asia and the United States, while falling U.S. oil inventories kept prices from moving lower. Japan’s core consumer prices last month gained 2.5% from a year earlier, data showed on Friday, growing from the previous month and keeping the country’s central bank on track to raise interest rates higher in the coming months. Oil was supported by government data released on Thursday that showed a drawdown in U.S. crude stockpiles by 2.5 million barrels in the week ending June 14 to 457.1 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration said. Gasoline inventories fell by 2.3 million barrels to 231.2 million barrels, the EIA said, compared with forecasts for a 600,000-barrel build. Natural gas can move in range of 237-250


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