Bullions counter may trade on negative path as gold prices fell in early Asian trading on Monday as easing tensions in the Middle East tempered safe-haven demand, while investors awaited Donald Trump’s inauguration and clarity on the incoming administration’s policies.US markets closed today due to martin Luther king holiday.
Commodity Morning Trading Guide
Report Overview
COMMODITY DAILY MARKET NEWS AND OUTLOOK
BULLIONS
- Bullions counter may trade on negative path as gold prices fell in early Asian trading on Monday as easing tensions in the Middle East tempered safe-haven demand, while investors awaited Donald Trump’s inauguration and clarity on the incoming administration’s policies.US markets closed today due to martin Luther king holiday.
- Overall gold (Feb) can move in range of 78500-79000 while silver (Mar) also can move in range of 91000 -92000.
- Market participants keenly awaited Trump’s inauguration later in the day, and his broad trade tariffs are expected to further ignite inflation and trigger trade wars, potentially increasing bullion’s safe-haven appeal.
- Gold stocks in COMEX-approved warehouses have jumped by a third in the past six weeks as market players sought deliveries to hedge against the possibility of import tariffs from Trump.
BASE METALS
- In base metal counter, Copper prices can trade on mixed path as it can move in range of 825-836. In 2024, copper prices experienced significant fluctuations, and the prices of secondary copper raw materials also showed a trend of rising first, then pulling back, followed by a slight rebound. In Q1, copper prices continued the stable trend of 2023.
- Aluminium prices can trade on upside path as it may move in range of 252-257.while lead may also move in range of 176-180.
- Since March 2024, domestic secondary copper raw material suppliers actively increased shipments due to rising copper prices to avoid risks from a pullback from highs. When copper prices climbed from 68,000 yuan/mt to 73,000 yuan/mt, the market had ample secondary copper raw material inventory, and even copper powder began to be favored by enterprises.
ENERGY
- Crude oil may trade on volatile path as it can move in range of 6600-6800. Oil prices were little changed on Monday as expectations of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump relaxing curbs on Russia’s energy sector in exchange for a deal to end the Ukraine war offset concern of supply disruption from harsher sanctions.
- Both contracts gained more than 1% last week in their fourth successive weekly ascent, after the Biden administration sanctioned more than 100 tankers and two Russian oil producers. That led to a scramble by top buyers China and India for prompt oil cargoes and a global rush for ship supply as dealers of Russian and Iranian oil seek unsanctioned tankers to ferry their load.
- Natural gas may trade on lower path as it can move in range of 321-336.
- Backwardation refers to a market structure where prompt prices are higher than those in future months, indicating tight supply.
Disclosure
Globe Capital Market Limited (“GCML”) is a Stock Broker registered with BSE, NSE, MCX, NCDEX, and MSEI in all the major segments viz. Capital, F & O and CDS segments. GCML is also a Depository Participant and registered with both the Depositories viz. CDSL and NSDL. Further, GCML is a SEBI registered Portfolio Manager and Research Analyst. GCML includes subsidiaries, group and associate companies, promoters, directors, employees and affiliates.
AY Securities and Commodities Limited, Globe Derivatives and Securities Limited & Globe Fincap Limited are subsidiaries of GCML. AtoZFinstock Private Limited, A to Z Consultants Private Limited, A to Z Venture Capital Limited, M. Agarwal Stock Brokers Private Limited, A M Share Brokers Private Limited, Shri Adinath Advertising Company Pvt. Ltd., Orient Landbase Private Limited, Bolt Synthetic Private Limited, Price ponder Private Limited, LakshyaImpex Private Limited and Launchpad Fintech Private Limited are associates of GCML.
This report has been prepared by GCML and published in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 19 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, for use by the recipient as information only and is not for general circulation or public distribution. This report is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced, copied, redistributed, uploaded, published or made available to others, in any form, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission from GCML. The projections and the forecasts described in this report are based on estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections are forecasts were based may not materialize or may vary significantly from actual results and such variations will likely increase over the period of time. This report should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this report nor anything contained therein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objective, financial situation or needs of any individual in particular. The research analysts of GCML have adhered to the code of conduct under Regulation 24 (2) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. The recipients of this report must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial situation or needs and other factors. The recipients should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for its/ his/ her/their particular circumstances and if necessary, seek professional / financial advice as there is substantial risk of loss. GCML does not take any responsibility thereof.
Any such recipient shall be responsible for conducting his/her/its/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this report and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in securities forming the subject matter of this report. The price and value of the investment referred to in this report and income from them may go up as well as down, and investors may realize profit/loss on their investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the projection.
AY Securities and Commodities Limited, Globe Derivatives and Securities Limited & Globe Fincap Limited are subsidiaries of GCML. AtoZFinstock Private Limited, A to Z Consultants Private Limited, A to Z Venture Capital Limited, M. Agarwal Stock Brokers Private Limited, A M Share Brokers Private Limited, Shri Adinath Advertising Company Pvt. Ltd., Orient Landbase Private Limited, Bolt Synthetic Private Limited, Price ponder Private Limited, LakshyaImpex Private Limited and Launchpad Fintech Private Limited are associates of GCML.
This report has been prepared by GCML and published in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 19 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, for use by the recipient as information only and is not for general circulation or public distribution. This report is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced, copied, redistributed, uploaded, published or made available to others, in any form, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission from GCML. The projections and the forecasts described in this report are based on estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections are forecasts were based may not materialize or may vary significantly from actual results and such variations will likely increase over the period of time. This report should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this report nor anything contained therein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objective, financial situation or needs of any individual in particular. The research analysts of GCML have adhered to the code of conduct under Regulation 24 (2) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. The recipients of this report must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial situation or needs and other factors. The recipients should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for its/ his/ her/their particular circumstances and if necessary, seek professional / financial advice as there is substantial risk of loss. GCML does not take any responsibility thereof.
Any such recipient shall be responsible for conducting his/her/its/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this report and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in securities forming the subject matter of this report. The price and value of the investment referred to in this report and income from them may go up as well as down, and investors may realize profit/loss on their investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the projection.