Bullions counter may trade on mixed path as yellow metal prices edged higher as attention turned to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming monetary policy decision, with the U.S. central bank anticipated to implement a third rate cut this year and provide insights into its plans for 2025.
Commodity Morning Trading Guide
Report Overview
COMMODITY DAILY MARKET NEWS AND OUTLOOK
BULLIONS
- Bullions counter may trade on mixed path as yellow metal prices edged higher as attention turned to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming monetary policy decision, with the U.S. central bank anticipated to implement a third rate cut this year and provide insights into its plans for 2025.
- Overall gold (Feb) can move in range of 76600- 77000 while silver (Mar) also can move in range of 89000 -91000.
- The U.S. Fed began its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, with focus on the central bank’s updated economic projections and the dot plot, which could alter expectations for the rate trajectory through 2025 and 2026.
- U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in November, adding to warmer inflation readings in recent months and suggesting that the central bank could pause rate reduction in January.
- Markets see a 97.1% chance of a quarter-point rate cut but have only priced in a roughly 16.3% chance of another reduction in January, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
BASE METALS
- In base metal counter, Copper prices can trade on mixed path as it can move in range of 800-820. Copper prices settled lower due to persistent concerns over Chinese demand and a global supply surplus outlook. China’s economic data revealed slower-than-expected retail sales growth in November, while industrial production showed improvement.
- Aluminium prices can trade on mixed path as it may move in range of 240-245.while lead may also move in range of 176-182.
- On the supply front, Peru’s copper production in October fell 1.4% year-on-year to 236,797 metric tons, driven by lower output from major mines such as Cerro Verde (-6.6%) and Antamina (-22.2%).
- In contrast, China’s copper imports in November hit a one-year high of 528,000 tons, up 4.3% from October, as lower prices spurred restocking amid declining domestic inventories. However, imports of copper concentrate fell by 7.8% year-on-year to 2.25 million tons in November.
ENERGY
- Crude oil may trade on volatile path as it can move in range of 5900-6000. Oil prices traded in a narrow range early on Wednesday as investors remained cautious ahead of an expected interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
- In the U.S., American Petroleum Institute data on Tuesday showed that crude stocks fell by 4.69 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 13, a source said. Gasoline inventories rose by 2.45 million barrels, and distillate stocks rose by 744,000 barrels, according to the source.
- Projections for rate cuts in 2025 are being second-guessed, especially with Trump planning a comeback on January 20.
- The European Union on Tuesday adopted a 15th package of sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, adding an additional 33 vessels from Russia’s shadow fleet used for transporting crude or petroleum products. Britain also sanctioned 20 ships for carrying illicit Russian oil.
- Natural gas may trade on upside path as it can move in range of 276-295.
Disclosure
Globe Capital Market Limited (“GCML”) is a Stock Broker registered with BSE, NSE, MCX, NCDEX, and MSEI in all the major segments viz. Capital, F & O and CDS segments. GCML is also a Depository Participant and registered with both the Depositories viz. CDSL and NSDL. Further, GCML is a SEBI registered Portfolio Manager and Research Analyst. GCML includes subsidiaries, group and associate companies, promoters, directors, employees and affiliates.
AY Securities and Commodities Limited, Globe Derivatives and Securities Limited & Globe Fincap Limited are subsidiaries of GCML. AtoZFinstock Private Limited, A to Z Consultants Private Limited, A to Z Venture Capital Limited, M. Agarwal Stock Brokers Private Limited, A M Share Brokers Private Limited, Shri Adinath Advertising Company Pvt. Ltd., Orient Landbase Private Limited, Bolt Synthetic Private Limited, Price ponder Private Limited, LakshyaImpex Private Limited and Launchpad Fintech Private Limited are associates of GCML.
This report has been prepared by GCML and published in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 19 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, for use by the recipient as information only and is not for general circulation or public distribution. This report is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced, copied, redistributed, uploaded, published or made available to others, in any form, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission from GCML. The projections and the forecasts described in this report are based on estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections are forecasts were based may not materialize or may vary significantly from actual results and such variations will likely increase over the period of time. This report should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this report nor anything contained therein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objective, financial situation or needs of any individual in particular. The research analysts of GCML have adhered to the code of conduct under Regulation 24 (2) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. The recipients of this report must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial situation or needs and other factors. The recipients should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for its/ his/ her/their particular circumstances and if necessary, seek professional / financial advice as there is substantial risk of loss. GCML does not take any responsibility thereof.
Any such recipient shall be responsible for conducting his/her/its/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this report and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in securities forming the subject matter of this report. The price and value of the investment referred to in this report and income from them may go up as well as down, and investors may realize profit/loss on their investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the projection.
AY Securities and Commodities Limited, Globe Derivatives and Securities Limited & Globe Fincap Limited are subsidiaries of GCML. AtoZFinstock Private Limited, A to Z Consultants Private Limited, A to Z Venture Capital Limited, M. Agarwal Stock Brokers Private Limited, A M Share Brokers Private Limited, Shri Adinath Advertising Company Pvt. Ltd., Orient Landbase Private Limited, Bolt Synthetic Private Limited, Price ponder Private Limited, LakshyaImpex Private Limited and Launchpad Fintech Private Limited are associates of GCML.
This report has been prepared by GCML and published in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 19 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, for use by the recipient as information only and is not for general circulation or public distribution. This report is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced, copied, redistributed, uploaded, published or made available to others, in any form, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission from GCML. The projections and the forecasts described in this report are based on estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections are forecasts were based may not materialize or may vary significantly from actual results and such variations will likely increase over the period of time. This report should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this report nor anything contained therein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objective, financial situation or needs of any individual in particular. The research analysts of GCML have adhered to the code of conduct under Regulation 24 (2) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. The recipients of this report must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial situation or needs and other factors. The recipients should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for its/ his/ her/their particular circumstances and if necessary, seek professional / financial advice as there is substantial risk of loss. GCML does not take any responsibility thereof.
Any such recipient shall be responsible for conducting his/her/its/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this report and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in securities forming the subject matter of this report. The price and value of the investment referred to in this report and income from them may go up as well as down, and investors may realize profit/loss on their investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the projection.