- Bullions counter may trade on mixed path bias as investors waited for a series of U.S. economic data this week that could shed more light on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.
Commodity Morning Trading Guide
Report Overview
BULLIONS
- Bullions counter may trade on mixed path bias as investors waited for a series of U.S. economic data this week that could shed more light on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.
- Overall Gold (Dec) can move in range of 123000-124500 while silver (Dec) can move in range of 155000-159000.
- Focus this week will be on U.S. data releases, including the September nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday, for clues on the health of the world’s largest economy.
- Traders are currently pricing in a 46% probability of a quarter-point Fed rate cut next month, down from 50% in last week.
- Physical gold demand across major Asian markets was subdued last week as elevated prices curtailed buying activity, with discounts in India reaching their highest level in five months.
BASE METALS
- In base metal counter, Copper (Nov) prices can trade on volatile path as it can move in range of 1000-1010. Copper eased on Monday amid a broad selloff among the base metal complex, as hawkish views from some U.S. Federal Reserve officials sparked concerns that a December interest rate cut may not be on the horizon.
- The U.S. government on Friday said it will start to release economic data delayed by the government shutdown, including Thursday’s delayed September jobs report.
- Aluminum (Nov) prices can trade on mixed path as it may move in range of 270-274.while Zinc (Nov) may move on upside path as it may trade in range of 302-308.
- The U.S. dollar turned stronger on Monday as market pricing in the hawkish views. A stronger dollar weighs on commodities traded in the greenback by making them more expensive for investors using other currencies.
ENERGY
- Crude oil (Nov) may trade on lower path as it can move in range of 5200-5350. Oil prices fell in early Asian trade on Monday, erasing last week’s gains, as loadings resumed at the key Russian export hub of Novorossiysk after a two-day suspension at the Black Sea port that had been hit by a Ukrainian attack.
- Both benchmarks rose more than 2% on Friday to end the week with a modest gain, after exports were suspended at Novorossiysk and a neighbouring Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal, affecting the equivalent of 2% of global supply.
- Novorossiysk port resumed oil loadings on Sunday, two industry sources said and LSEG data showed. However, Ukraine’s stepped-up attacks on Russia’s oil infrastructure remain in focus for further possible disruptions.
- Natural gas (Nov) may remain on weaker path as it can move in range of 390-400.
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