Commodity Morning Trading Guide | Globe Capital Market LTD.
16-May-2024
Commodity Morning Trading Guide

Bullions counter may trade on upside path as yellow metal prices inched up on Thursday following a sharp rise in the last session as the dollar and bond yields weakened on the increasing likelihood of rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve as early as September.

Report Overview

BULLIONS
Bullions counter may trade on upside path as yellow metal prices inched up on Thursday following a sharp rise in the last session as the dollar and bond yields weakened on the increasing likelihood of rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve as early as September. Overall gold can move in range of 72800-73400 while silver also can move in range of 86000-88000. The dollar index opens fell 0.2% against a basket of other major currencies, making the greenback-priced bullion less expensive for other currency holders. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hit its lowest in more than one month. Cooling U.S. consumer prices along with last week’s lackluster jobs report and a softer-than-expected U.S. payrolls report for April comes as good news to Fed policymakers waiting to see renewed progress on inflation before reducing borrowing costs.
BASE METALS
In base metal counter, Copper prices can trade on firm path as it can move range of 892-910. London copper touched a more than two-year high on Wednesday, aided by weaker U.S. dollar and bullish demand outlook, while prices on the CME hit a record high. The recent surge of U.S. prices came with a short squeeze on the futures market as traders appear to have been caught short on their trades and are being forced to buy back to cover their positions. Investors have raised their bets on copper given a supply shortage of raw material this year and booming demand outlook. Zinc may move sideways in range of 260-268.
ENERGY
Crude oil may trade in mixed path as it may move in range of 6550-6650. Oil prices extended gains from the previous session on Thursday on signs of stronger demand in the U.S. where data showed slower inflation than markets expected, bolstering the argument for an interest rate cut which could drive even greater consumption. The larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. crude inventories for last week also offered some calm, while geopolitical tensions continue to rock on in the Middle East. U.S. consumer prices rose less than expected in April in a boost to financial market expectations for a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which could temper dollar strength and make oil more affordable for holders of other currencies. In the Middle East, Israeli troops battled Hamas militants across Gaza, including Rafah which had been a civilian refuge. Global oil demand this year will grow by 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd), IEA said, down 140,000 bpd from its previous forecast, largely due to weak demand in developed nations of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Natural gas prices trade on strong path as it may move in range of 195-207.


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