- Bullions counter may trade with upside bias as yellow metal inched higher on Tuesday, ahead of the release of U.S. inflation data later in the day that could shed more light on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.
Commodity Morning Trading Guide
Report Overview
COMMODITY DAILY MARKET NEWS AND OUTLOOK
BULLIONS
- Bullions counter may trade with upside bias as yellow metal inched higher on Tuesday, ahead of the release of U.S. inflation data later in the day that could shed more light on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.
- Overall gold (Aug) can move in range of 97500-98700 while silver (Sep) also can move in range of 110000-115000.
- U.S. President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened to impose a 30% tariff on imports from Mexico and the European Union starting on August 1, after weeks of negotiations with the major U.S. trading partners failed to reach a trade deal.
- Trump on Monday renewed his attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, saying interest rates should be at 1% or lower. Markets are pricing in 50 basis points of rate cuts by year-end, with the first reduction expected in September.
BASE METALS
- In base metal counter, Copper prices can trade on mixed path as it can move in range of 877-886. Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw narrow fluctuations on Tuesday, as China’s GDP growth aligned with forecast, while traders awaited U.S. inflation data and potential monetary policy shifts.
- Aluminum prices can trade on upside path as it may move in range of 246-252.while lead may also move in range of 174-183.
- China’s GDP grew 5.2% during April-June, slightly lower than the 5.4% in the first quarter, and the country’s GDP growth for the first half of 2025 was at 5.3%, with fixed asset investment up 2.8% year-on-year, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics.
- The dollar hovered near a three-week high against major peers, as traders awaited U.S. inflation data for clues on monetary policy and the potential departure of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell amid continued criticism from U.S. President Donald Trump.
ENERGY
- Crude oil may trade on lower path as it can move in range of 5680-5800. Oil prices edged down on Tuesday as the market digested U.S. President Donald Trump’s 50-day deadline for Russia to end the Ukraine war and avoid sanctions on buyers of its oil, while worries continued to linger over Trump’s trade tariffs.
- Trump announced new weapons for Ukraine on Monday, and threatened sanctions on buyers of Russian exports unless Moscow agrees to a peace deal in 50 days.
- Goldman Sachs on Monday raised its oil price outlook for the second half of 2025, pointing to potential supply disruptions, shrinking oil inventories in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries, and production constraints in Russia.
- Natural gas may trade on mixed path as it can move in range of 290-302.
Disclosure
Globe Capital Market Limited (“GCML”) is a Stock Broker registered with BSE, NSE, MCX, NCDEX, and MSEI in all the major segments viz. Capital, F & O and CDS segments. GCML is also a Depository Participant and registered with both the Depositories viz. CDSL and NSDL. Further, GCML is a SEBI registered Portfolio Manager and Research Analyst. GCML includes subsidiaries, group and associate companies, promoters, directors, employees and affiliates.
AY Securities and Commodities Limited, Globe Derivatives and Securities Limited & Globe Fincap Limited are subsidiaries of GCML. AtoZFinstock Private Limited, A to Z Consultants Private Limited, A to Z Venture Capital Limited, M. Agarwal Stock Brokers Private Limited, A M Share Brokers Private Limited, Shri Adinath Advertising Company Pvt. Ltd., Orient Landbase Private Limited, Bolt Synthetic Private Limited, Price ponder Private Limited, LakshyaImpex Private Limited and Launchpad Fintech Private Limited are associates of GCML.
This report has been prepared by GCML and published in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 19 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, for use by the recipient as information only and is not for general circulation or public distribution. This report is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced, copied, redistributed, uploaded, published or made available to others, in any form, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission from GCML. The projections and the forecasts described in this report are based on estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections are forecasts were based may not materialize or may vary significantly from actual results and such variations will likely increase over the period of time. This report should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this report nor anything contained therein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objective, financial situation or needs of any individual in particular. The research analysts of GCML have adhered to the code of conduct under Regulation 24 (2) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. The recipients of this report must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial situation or needs and other factors. The recipients should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for its/ his/ her/their particular circumstances and if necessary, seek professional / financial advice as there is substantial risk of loss. GCML does not take any responsibility thereof.
Any such recipient shall be responsible for conducting his/her/its/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this report and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in securities forming the subject matter of this report. The price and value of the investment referred to in this report and income from them may go up as well as down, and investors may realize profit/loss on their investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the projection.
AY Securities and Commodities Limited, Globe Derivatives and Securities Limited & Globe Fincap Limited are subsidiaries of GCML. AtoZFinstock Private Limited, A to Z Consultants Private Limited, A to Z Venture Capital Limited, M. Agarwal Stock Brokers Private Limited, A M Share Brokers Private Limited, Shri Adinath Advertising Company Pvt. Ltd., Orient Landbase Private Limited, Bolt Synthetic Private Limited, Price ponder Private Limited, LakshyaImpex Private Limited and Launchpad Fintech Private Limited are associates of GCML.
This report has been prepared by GCML and published in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 19 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, for use by the recipient as information only and is not for general circulation or public distribution. This report is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced, copied, redistributed, uploaded, published or made available to others, in any form, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission from GCML. The projections and the forecasts described in this report are based on estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections are forecasts were based may not materialize or may vary significantly from actual results and such variations will likely increase over the period of time. This report should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this report nor anything contained therein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objective, financial situation or needs of any individual in particular. The research analysts of GCML have adhered to the code of conduct under Regulation 24 (2) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. The recipients of this report must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial situation or needs and other factors. The recipients should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for its/ his/ her/their particular circumstances and if necessary, seek professional / financial advice as there is substantial risk of loss. GCML does not take any responsibility thereof.
Any such recipient shall be responsible for conducting his/her/its/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this report and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in securities forming the subject matter of this report. The price and value of the investment referred to in this report and income from them may go up as well as down, and investors may realize profit/loss on their investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the projection.
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