- Bullions counter may trade on positive path as gold breached the key $3,200/oz level for the first time to scale a new peak on Friday, fuelled by a weaker dollar and an escalating trade war that sent investors rushing toward safe-haven assets.
Commodity Morning Trading Guide
Report Overview
BULLIONS
- Bullions counter may trade on positive path as gold breached the key $3,200/oz level for the first time to scale a new peak on Friday, fuelled by a weaker dollar and an escalating trade war that sent investors rushing toward safe-haven assets.
- Overall gold (Apr) can move in range of 92500-94500 while silver (May) also can move in range of 90000-93500.
- Major stock indexes also fell after U.S. President Donald Trump ratcheted up tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%, but hit a 90-day pause on previously announced tariffs for dozens of countries.
- China has been matching each of Trump’s tariff hikes with increases of its own, sparking fears that Beijing could push tariffs on the U.S. beyond the current 84%.
- Apart from tariffs, central bank demand, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical instability in the Middle East and Europe, and increased flows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds also fuelled the metal’s rally this year.
BASE METALS
- In base metal counter, Copper prices can trade on mixed path as it can move in range of 820-840. Base metals in London traded mixed on Friday and were headed for a weekly rise after U.S. President Donald Trump decided to temporarily lower the hefty duties for dozens of countries and the dollar weakened.
- Aluminum prices can trade on upside path as it may move in range of 230-235.while lead may also move in range of 175-178.
- The dollar slumped as waning confidence in the U.S. economy prompted investors to ditch U.S. assets to the benefit of safe havens. However, the U.S. president ratcheted up duties on Chinese imports to an effective 145% rate on Thursday, further escalating a high-stakes confrontation between the world’s two largest economies.
ENERGY
- Crude oil may trade on volatile path as it can move in range of 5050-5300. Oil prices fell on Friday and were set to drop for a second week on concerns prolonged trade war between the United States and China, the world’s largest economies, will crush crude consumption as their dispute curtails economic growth.
- A prolonged trade dispute between the U.S. and China is likely to reduce global trade volumes and disrupt trade routes, and eventually weigh on global economic growth. As the world’s two largest oil consumers, that will also impact crude consumption.
- Natural gas may trade on volatile path as it can move in range of 296-310.
- The trade war between the two economic superpowers has ratcheted up after U.S. President Donald Trump raised tariffs against China to 145% on Thursday, even after announcing a pause on heavy tariffs against dozens of trading partners on Wednesday. China, in turn, has announced an additional import levy on U.S. goods, raising their tariffs to 84% on U.S. goods.
Disclosure
Globe Capital Market Limited (“GCML”) is a Stock Broker registered with BSE, NSE, MCX, NCDEX, and MSEI in all the major segments viz. Capital, F & O and CDS segments. GCML is also a Depository Participant and registered with both the Depositories viz. CDSL and NSDL. Further, GCML is a SEBI registered Portfolio Manager and Research Analyst. GCML includes subsidiaries, group and associate companies, promoters, directors, employees and affiliates.
AY Securities and Commodities Limited, Globe Derivatives and Securities Limited & Globe Fincap Limited are subsidiaries of GCML. AtoZFinstock Private Limited, A to Z Consultants Private Limited, A to Z Venture Capital Limited, M. Agarwal Stock Brokers Private Limited, A M Share Brokers Private Limited, Shri Adinath Advertising Company Pvt. Ltd., Orient Landbase Private Limited, Bolt Synthetic Private Limited, Price ponder Private Limited, LakshyaImpex Private Limited and Launchpad Fintech Private Limited are associates of GCML.
This report has been prepared by GCML and published in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 19 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, for use by the recipient as information only and is not for general circulation or public distribution. This report is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced, copied, redistributed, uploaded, published or made available to others, in any form, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission from GCML. The projections and the forecasts described in this report are based on estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections are forecasts were based may not materialize or may vary significantly from actual results and such variations will likely increase over the period of time. This report should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this report nor anything contained therein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objective, financial situation or needs of any individual in particular. The research analysts of GCML have adhered to the code of conduct under Regulation 24 (2) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. The recipients of this report must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial situation or needs and other factors. The recipients should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for its/ his/ her/their particular circumstances and if necessary, seek professional / financial advice as there is substantial risk of loss. GCML does not take any responsibility thereof.
Any such recipient shall be responsible for conducting his/her/its/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this report and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in securities forming the subject matter of this report. The price and value of the investment referred to in this report and income from them may go up as well as down, and investors may realize profit/loss on their investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the projection.
AY Securities and Commodities Limited, Globe Derivatives and Securities Limited & Globe Fincap Limited are subsidiaries of GCML. AtoZFinstock Private Limited, A to Z Consultants Private Limited, A to Z Venture Capital Limited, M. Agarwal Stock Brokers Private Limited, A M Share Brokers Private Limited, Shri Adinath Advertising Company Pvt. Ltd., Orient Landbase Private Limited, Bolt Synthetic Private Limited, Price ponder Private Limited, LakshyaImpex Private Limited and Launchpad Fintech Private Limited are associates of GCML.
This report has been prepared by GCML and published in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 19 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, for use by the recipient as information only and is not for general circulation or public distribution. This report is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced, copied, redistributed, uploaded, published or made available to others, in any form, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission from GCML. The projections and the forecasts described in this report are based on estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections are forecasts were based may not materialize or may vary significantly from actual results and such variations will likely increase over the period of time. This report should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this report nor anything contained therein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objective, financial situation or needs of any individual in particular. The research analysts of GCML have adhered to the code of conduct under Regulation 24 (2) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. The recipients of this report must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial situation or needs and other factors. The recipients should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for its/ his/ her/their particular circumstances and if necessary, seek professional / financial advice as there is substantial risk of loss. GCML does not take any responsibility thereof.
Any such recipient shall be responsible for conducting his/her/its/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this report and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in securities forming the subject matter of this report. The price and value of the investment referred to in this report and income from them may go up as well as down, and investors may realize profit/loss on their investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the projection.