- Bullions counter may trade with upside path as yellow metal edged higher on Thursday, helped by a weaker dollar on growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, while investors awaited U.S. President Donald Trump’s nominations to the central bank’s Board of Governors.
Commodity Morning Trading Guide
Report Overview
BULLIONS
- Bullions counter may trade with upside path as yellow metal edged higher on Thursday, helped by a weaker dollar on growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, while investors awaited U.S. President Donald Trump’s nominations to the central bank’s Board of Governors.
- Overall gold can move in range of 101000-101800 while silver also can move in range of 112000-115000.
- Traders are now pricing in a 95% chance of a 25-basis-point cut next month, up from 48% a week ago, according to the CME Group’s Fed Watch Tool.
- The Fed may need to cut rates in the near-term in response to a slowing U.S. economy, even though it remains unclear whether tariffs will continue to push inflation higher, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said.
BASE METALS
- In base metal counter, Copper prices can trade on volatile path as it can move in range of 880-890. Copper and other base metals rose on Thursday, supported by growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and optimism over a potential trade truce between the U.S. and China.
- Aluminum prices can trade on stronger path as it may move in range of 250-257.while lead may also move in range of 177-183.
- The dollar index languished near a more than one-week low after a surprisingly weak U.S. jobs data last week triggered bets for Fed rate cuts from September.
- A weaker dollar makes greenback-denominated assets more affordable to holders of other currencies. Investors are closely watching the developments in Chile, the world’s largest copper producer, after its El Teniente copper mine collapsed after an earthquake last week, killing six people.
ENERGY
- Crude oil may trade on mixed path as it can move in range of 5650-5750. Oil prices rose on Thursday, pausing a five-day losing streak, on signs of steady demand in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil user, though the prospect of U.S.-Russian talks on the Ukraine war eased concerns of supply disruptions from further sanctions.
- With planned OPEC+’s output increases weighing on prices, WTI will likely remain in the $60-$70 range for the rest of the month,” he said, referring to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia.
- Adding to the pressure on Russian oil buyers, Trump on Wednesday imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, citing their continued imports of Russian oil. The new import tax will go into effect 21 days after August 7.
- Natural gas may witness lower level buying as it can move in range of 267-276.
Disclosure
Globe Capital Market Limited (“GCML”) is a Stock Broker registered with BSE, NSE, MCX, NCDEX, and MSEI in all the major segments viz. Capital, F & O and CDS segments. GCML is also a Depository Participant and registered with both the Depositories viz. CDSL and NSDL. Further, GCML is a SEBI registered Portfolio Manager and Research Analyst. GCML includes subsidiaries, group and associate companies, promoters, directors, employees and affiliates.
AY Securities and Commodities Limited, Globe Derivatives and Securities Limited & Globe Fincap Limited are subsidiaries of GCML. AtoZFinstock Private Limited, A to Z Consultants Private Limited, A to Z Venture Capital Limited, M. Agarwal Stock Brokers Private Limited, A M Share Brokers Private Limited, Shri Adinath Advertising Company Pvt. Ltd., Orient Landbase Private Limited, Bolt Synthetic Private Limited, Price ponder Private Limited, LakshyaImpex Private Limited and Launchpad Fintech Private Limited are associates of GCML.
This report has been prepared by GCML and published in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 19 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, for use by the recipient as information only and is not for general circulation or public distribution. This report is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced, copied, redistributed, uploaded, published or made available to others, in any form, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission from GCML. The projections and the forecasts described in this report are based on estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections are forecasts were based may not materialize or may vary significantly from actual results and such variations will likely increase over the period of time. This report should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this report nor anything contained therein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objective, financial situation or needs of any individual in particular. The research analysts of GCML have adhered to the code of conduct under Regulation 24 (2) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. The recipients of this report must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial situation or needs and other factors. The recipients should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for its/ his/ her/their particular circumstances and if necessary, seek professional / financial advice as there is substantial risk of loss. GCML does not take any responsibility thereof.
Any such recipient shall be responsible for conducting his/her/its/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this report and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in securities forming the subject matter of this report. The price and value of the investment referred to in this report and income from them may go up as well as down, and investors may realize profit/loss on their investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the projection.
AY Securities and Commodities Limited, Globe Derivatives and Securities Limited & Globe Fincap Limited are subsidiaries of GCML. AtoZFinstock Private Limited, A to Z Consultants Private Limited, A to Z Venture Capital Limited, M. Agarwal Stock Brokers Private Limited, A M Share Brokers Private Limited, Shri Adinath Advertising Company Pvt. Ltd., Orient Landbase Private Limited, Bolt Synthetic Private Limited, Price ponder Private Limited, LakshyaImpex Private Limited and Launchpad Fintech Private Limited are associates of GCML.
This report has been prepared by GCML and published in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 19 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, for use by the recipient as information only and is not for general circulation or public distribution. This report is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced, copied, redistributed, uploaded, published or made available to others, in any form, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission from GCML. The projections and the forecasts described in this report are based on estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections are forecasts were based may not materialize or may vary significantly from actual results and such variations will likely increase over the period of time. This report should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this report nor anything contained therein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objective, financial situation or needs of any individual in particular. The research analysts of GCML have adhered to the code of conduct under Regulation 24 (2) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. The recipients of this report must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial situation or needs and other factors. The recipients should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for its/ his/ her/their particular circumstances and if necessary, seek professional / financial advice as there is substantial risk of loss. GCML does not take any responsibility thereof.
Any such recipient shall be responsible for conducting his/her/its/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this report and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in securities forming the subject matter of this report. The price and value of the investment referred to in this report and income from them may go up as well as down, and investors may realize profit/loss on their investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the projection.
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