- Bullions counter may continue to move higher as gold surged past $3,900 an ounce for the first time on Monday, driven by safe-haven demand amid a U.S. government shutdown, alongside growing expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Commodity Morning Trading Guide
Report Overview
BULLIONS
- Bullions counter may continue to move higher as gold surged past $3,900 an ounce for the first time on Monday, driven by safe-haven demand amid a U.S. government shutdown, alongside growing expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts.
- Overall Gold (Dec) can move in range of 118400-120000 while Silver (Dec) also can move in range of 146000-149000.
- Physical gold demand in India rose last week despite record high prices as a key festival in the world’s second-biggest bullion consumer boosted purchases. Meanwhile, Chinese markets were closed for a holiday.
- Fed Governor Stephen Miran pressed for an aggressive rate cut trajectory again on Friday, citing the impact of Trump administration’s policies on the economy.
- According to the CME Fed Watch tool, investors are pricing in additional 25-basis-point cuts in both October and December, with probabilities of 95% and 83%, respectively.
BASE METALS
- In base metal counter, Copper (Oct) prices can trade on firm path as it can move in range of 995-1005. Copper rose to a more than 16-month high on Monday, supported by concerns about supply from top producer Chile and major supplier Indonesia.
- Miner Freeport said on Sunday that five workers who had been missing following a mud flow disaster at the Grasberg copper and gold mine in Indonesia were found dead.
- Aluminum prices can trade on upside path as it may move in range of 257-262.while Zinc may move on volatile path as it may trade in range of 286-297.
- Mine supply challenges, along with China’s anti-involution drive, are impacting refined copper production growth.” Chile’s output fell 9.9% year-on-year in August after an accident at Codelco’s flagship mine on July 31.
ENERGY
- Crude oil may trade with upside path as it can move in range of 5430-5570. Oil prices rose about 1% in early trade on Monday after OPEC+ announced a more modest monthly increase in production than expected, tempering some concerns about supply additions.
- Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and some smaller producers said it would raise production from November by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd), the same modest monthly increase as in October, amid persistent concerns over a looming supply glut.
- OPEC+’s decision to increase production by another 137,000 bpd in November could be manageable in light of rising supply disruptions due to tightening sanctions by the U.S. and Europe against Russia and Iran.
- Natural gas (Oct) may move on strong path as it can move in range of 300-310.
Disclosure
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AY Securities and Commodities Limited, Globe Derivatives and Securities Limited & Globe Fincap Limited are subsidiaries of GCML. AtoZFinstock Private Limited, A to Z Consultants Private Limited, A to Z Venture Capital Limited, M. Agarwal Stock Brokers Private Limited, A M Share Brokers Private Limited, Shri Adinath Advertising Company Pvt. Ltd., Orient Landbase Private Limited, Bolt Synthetic Private Limited, Price ponder Private Limited, LakshyaImpex Private Limited and Launchpad Fintech Private Limited are associates of GCML.
This report has been prepared by GCML and published in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 19 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, for use by the recipient as information only and is not for general circulation or public distribution. This report is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced, copied, redistributed, uploaded, published or made available to others, in any form, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission from GCML. The projections and the forecasts described in this report are based on estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections are forecasts were based may not materialize or may vary significantly from actual results and such variations will likely increase over the period of time. This report should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this report nor anything contained therein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objective, financial situation or needs of any individual in particular. The research analysts of GCML have adhered to the code of conduct under Regulation 24 (2) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. The recipients of this report must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial situation or needs and other factors. The recipients should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for its/ his/ her/their particular circumstances and if necessary, seek professional / financial advice as there is substantial risk of loss. GCML does not take any responsibility thereof.
Any such recipient shall be responsible for conducting his/her/its/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this report and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in securities forming the subject matter of this report. The price and value of the investment referred to in this report and income from them may go up as well as down, and investors may realize profit/loss on their investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the projection.
AY Securities and Commodities Limited, Globe Derivatives and Securities Limited & Globe Fincap Limited are subsidiaries of GCML. AtoZFinstock Private Limited, A to Z Consultants Private Limited, A to Z Venture Capital Limited, M. Agarwal Stock Brokers Private Limited, A M Share Brokers Private Limited, Shri Adinath Advertising Company Pvt. Ltd., Orient Landbase Private Limited, Bolt Synthetic Private Limited, Price ponder Private Limited, LakshyaImpex Private Limited and Launchpad Fintech Private Limited are associates of GCML.
This report has been prepared by GCML and published in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 19 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, for use by the recipient as information only and is not for general circulation or public distribution. This report is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced, copied, redistributed, uploaded, published or made available to others, in any form, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission from GCML. The projections and the forecasts described in this report are based on estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections are forecasts were based may not materialize or may vary significantly from actual results and such variations will likely increase over the period of time. This report should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this report nor anything contained therein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objective, financial situation or needs of any individual in particular. The research analysts of GCML have adhered to the code of conduct under Regulation 24 (2) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. The recipients of this report must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial situation or needs and other factors. The recipients should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for its/ his/ her/their particular circumstances and if necessary, seek professional / financial advice as there is substantial risk of loss. GCML does not take any responsibility thereof.
Any such recipient shall be responsible for conducting his/her/its/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this report and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in securities forming the subject matter of this report. The price and value of the investment referred to in this report and income from them may go up as well as down, and investors may realize profit/loss on their investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the projection.
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