BULLIONS
Bullions counter may trade on positive path as traders awaited comments from a series of Federal Reserve officials for more cues on U.S. interest rate cut timeline. Overall gold can move in range of 70700-71200 while silver also can move in range of 81300-82400. Markets are pricing a 67% chance of a U.S. rate cut in September, as per CME’s FedWatch Tool. High interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion. The U.S. central bank should beef up its quarterly “dot plot” of policymakers’ interest-rate-path views by including the individual economic expectations that inform each one, Austan Goolsbee, president of the Chicago Fed, said on Friday. Meanwhile, New York Fed Bank President John Williams said the 2% target for inflation is “critical” to Fed’s efforts to achieve price stability. Physical gold demand in India remained subdued last week despite a slight correction in prices as buyers awaited an even bigger drop, while Chinese premiums slipped for the second straight week due to sluggish holiday demand.
BASE METALS
In base metal counter, Copper prices can trade on firm path as it can move range of 856-864. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) has cut its forecast supply surplus for this year due to much lower-than-expected mine production. Copper bulls might take issue with the group’s view the refined copper market will still be in oversupply this year and the next to the tune of 162,000 and 94,000 metric tons respectively. But when it last met in October, the ICSG’s statistical committee was expecting a 467,000-ton glut of metal this year. The new forecasts suggest a much closer alignment of production and demand in what is a 27-million-ton global market. Zinc may move sideways in range of 255-262. Chinese smelters’ agreement in March to curtail production was the trigger for a rally that has taken London Metal Exchange three-month copper above the $10,000-per ton level for the first time since April 2022.
ENERGY
Crude oil may witness some lower level buying as it may move in range of 6500-6640. Oil futures edged up on Monday after Saudi Arabia hiked June crude prices for most regions and as the prospect of a Gaza ceasefire deal appeared slim, renewing fears the Israel-Hamas conflict could still widen in the key oil producing region. Saudi Arabia raised the official selling prices (OSPs) for its crude sold to Asia, Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean in June, signalling expectations of strong demand this summer. The geopolitical risk premium in oil prices has also eased as talks for a Gaza ceasefire are underway. However, prospects for a deal appeared slim on Sunday as Hamas reiterated its demand for an end to the war in exchange for the freeing of hostages, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu flatly ruled that out. Natural gas prices may continue to excel higher as it may move in range of 170-186.

Disclosure

Globe Capital Market Limited (“GCML”) is a Stock Broker registered with BSE, NSE, USE and MSEI in all the major segments viz. Capital, F & O and CDS segments. GCML is also a Depository Participant and registered with both the Depositories viz. CDSL and NSDL. Further, GCML is a SEBI registered Portfolio Manager. GCML includes subsidiaries, group and associate companies, promoters, directors, employees and affiliates.

Globe Commodities Limited, Globe Derivatives and Securities Limited & Globe Fincap Limited are subsidiaries of GCML. Rolex Finvest Private Limited, A to Z Consultants Private Limited, A to Z Venture Capital Limited, M. Agarwal Stock Brokers Private Limited, A M Share Brokers Private Limited, Shri Adinath Advertising Company Pvt. Ltd., Orient Landbase Private Limited, Bolt Synthetic Private Limited, Price ponder Private Limited and Lakshya Impex Private Limited are associates of GCML. Globe Comex International DMCC is step down subsidiary of GCML.

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