Commodity Morning Trading Guide | Globe Capital Market LTD.
03-Jul-2024
Commodity Morning Trading Guide

Bullions counter may trade on upside path as investor’s awaited minutes of the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting for fresh cues on when the U.S. central bank will start cutting interest rates.

Report Overview

BULLIONS

  • Bullions counter may trade on upside path as investor’s awaited minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting for fresh cues on when the U.S. central bank will start cutting interest rates. Overall gold can move in range of 71500-72000 while silver also can move in range of 89500-91500.
  • Ahead of the release of the Fed minutes at 1800 GMT, Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday the United States was back on a “disinflationary path”, but policymakers needed more data before cutting rates to verify that recent weaker inflation readings provided an accurate picture of the economy.
  • Next on investors’ radar are the ADP employment and weekly jobless claims data scheduled to be released later in the day, and the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report due on Friday.

 

BASE METALS

  • In base metal counter, Copper prices can witness some bounce back as it can move range of 846-854. Copper prices steadied on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar softened, while investors awaited some key data by major economies later in the day for clues on global demand outlook.
  • China, Germany and France will release their manufacturing data later today, and the U.S. will also release a raft of data including jobless claims.
  • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell struck a moderately dovish tone in his comments on Tuesday, suggesting that the U.S. central bank is more than likely to start its easing cycle later this year.
  • Copper found supports in previous sessions after a private index showed factory activity among smaller Chinese manufacturers grew at the fastest pace since 2021 thanks to overseas orders.
  • Aluminium may trade on sideways path as it can move in range of 228-232.

ENERGY

  • Crude oil may trade on upside path as it may move in range of 6850-7060. Oil prices edged higher after industry data showed a bigger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude stockpiles, boosting hopes of solid fuel demand during the summer driving season in the top oil consuming nation.
  • U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 9.163 million barrels in the week ended June 28, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday.
  • On the supply side, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) oil output rose in June for a second consecutive month.
  • Natural gas can move on weaker path as it can move in range of 200-210.

Disclosure

Globe Capital Market Limited (“GCML”) is a Stock Broker registered with BSE, NSE, USE and MSEI in all the major segments viz. Capital, F & O and CDS segments. GCML is also a Depository Participant and registered with both the Depositories viz. CDSL and NSDL. Further, GCML is a SEBI registered Portfolio Manager. GCML includes subsidiaries, group and associate companies, promoters, directors, employees and affiliates.

Globe Commodities Limited, Globe Derivatives and Securities Limited & Globe Fincap Limited are subsidiaries of GCML. Rolex Finvest Private Limited, A to Z Consultants Private Limited, A to Z Venture Capital Limited, M. Agarwal Stock Brokers Private Limited, A M Share Brokers Private Limited, Shri Adinath Advertising Company Pvt. Ltd., Orient Landbase Private Limited, Bolt Synthetic Private Limited, Price ponder Private Limited and Lakshya Impex Private Limited are associates of GCML. Globe Comex International DMCC is step down subsidiary of GCML.

This report has been prepared by GCML and published in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 19 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, for use by the recipient as information only and is not for general circulation or public distribution. This report is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced, copied, redistributed, uploaded, published or made available to others, in any form, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission from GCML. The projections and the forecasts described in this report are based on estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections are forecasts were based may not materialize or may vary significantly from actual results and such variations will likely increase over the period of time. This report should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this report nor anything contained therein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objective, financial situation or needs of any individual in particular. The research analysts of GCML have adhered to the code of conduct under Regulation 24 (2) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. The recipients of this report must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial situation or needs and other factors. The recipients should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for its/ his/ her/their particular circumstances and if necessary, seek professional / financial advice as there is substantial risk of loss. GCML does not take any responsibility thereof.

Any such recipient shall be responsible for conducting his/her/its/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this report and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in securities forming the subject matter of this report. The price and value of the investment referred to in this report and income from them may go up as well as down, and investors may realize profit/loss on their investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the projection.

This report has been prepared by GCML based on the information available in the public domain and other public sources believed to be reliable. Though utmost care has been taken to ensure its accuracy and completeness, no representation or warranty, express or implied is made by GCML that such information is accurate or complete and/or is independently verified. The contents of this report represent the assumptions and projections of GCML and GCML does not guarantee the accuracy or reliability of any projection, assurances or advice made herein. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and/or tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to recipients’ specific circumstances.

Since GCML or its associates are engaged in various financial activities, they might have financial interest or beneficial ownership in various companies including subject company/companies mentioned in the report. GCML or its associates have not received any compensation for investment banking or merchant banking from the subject company in the past 12 months. GCML or its associates might have received any compensation including brokerage services and for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking from the subject company in the past 12 months. It is confirmed that GCML or research analyst or its associates have not managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past 12 months.

Research analyst or GCML or its relatives’/associates’ have no material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. Neither research analyst nor GCML are engaged in market making activity for the subject company. It is confirmed that research analysts do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. It is also confirmed that research analyst have not received any compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months.

No material disciplinary action has been taken on GCML by any regulatory authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities.

The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. This information is subject to change, as per applicable law, without any prior notice. GCML reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement, as may be required, from time to time.

Research analyst or GCML or its relatives’/associates’ do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more in securities of the subject company, at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the document.