Commodity Morning Trading Guide | Globe Capital Market LTD.
02-Jul-2024
Commodity Morning Trading Guide

Bullions counter may trade on sideways path as yellow metal were little changed as investors awaited comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and jobs data for further cues about the U.S. interest rate outlook.

Report Overview

BULLIONS
Bullions counter may trade on sideways path as yellow metal were little changed as investors awaited comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and jobs data for further cues about the U.S. interest rate outlook. Overall gold can move in range of 71400-71800 while silver also can move in range of 88400-90500. Traders will look for cues on interest rate cuts when Powell speaks later in the day. Next on their radar are minutes of the U.S. central bank’s last policy meeting due on Wednesday and the nonfarm payrolls report scheduled for release on Friday. Fed Bank of New York President John Williams said he continues to believe price pressures are moderating back to the levels targeted by the central bank, in comments made on Sunday. Data on Monday showed that U.S. manufacturing contracted for a third straight month in June, while a drop in a measure of prices paid by factories for inputs to a six-month low suggested that inflation could continue to subside.
BASE METALS
In base metal counter, Copper prices can witness some bounce back as it can move range of 843-851. PMI reports indicated a weak manufacturing outlook in major economies, further dampened by slowing industrial demand in China. Despite an expected seasonal drawdown, Chinese copper inventories remained high, driven by robust domestic production and increased smelting from scrap. Consequently, Shanghai bonded warehouse deliveries continued to trade at a discount to LME prices for over a month. Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories stood at 322,910 tons, significantly higher than the 30,000 tons recorded in January. Meanwhile, LME-approved warehouse stocks surged over 60% since mid-May to 167,825 tons, mainly due to deliveries from China to Asian warehouses. This lack of supply concerns on the LME market has led to a record discount for cash copper against the three-month contract, currently around $135 a ton. Aluminium may trade on sideways path as it can move in range of 229-233.

ENERGY
Crude oil may trade on upside path as it may move in range of 6930-7050. Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday, holding near the two-month highs reached in the previous session, on expectations for rising fuel demand from the summer travel season and possible U.S. interest rate cuts that could boost economic growth. On the supply side, markets were planning for possible disruptions from Hurricane Beryl on U.S. oil refining and offshore production. However, forecasts currently show the storm likely moving into Mexico’s Bay of Campeche and causing problems for oil production there. Along with a Commerce Department report on Friday showing U.S. inflation data was unchanged in May that could strengthen the case for lowering U.S. interest rates, a step that would boost economic activity and oil demand. Some data shows that crude imports to Asia, the world’s biggest oil consuming region, in the first half of 2024, were lower than last year. This was mainly because of lower imports into China, the world’s biggest oil importer and the second-largest consumer. Natural gas can move on weaker path as it can move in range of 200-212.


Disclosure

Globe Capital Market Limited (“GCML”) is a Stock Broker registered with BSE, NSE, USE and MSEI in all the major segments viz. Capital, F & O and CDS segments. GCML is also a Depository Participant and registered with both the Depositories viz. CDSL and NSDL. Further, GCML is a SEBI registered Portfolio Manager. GCML includes subsidiaries, group and associate companies, promoters, directors, employees and affiliates.

Globe Commodities Limited, Globe Derivatives and Securities Limited & Globe Fincap Limited are subsidiaries of GCML. Rolex Finvest Private Limited, A to Z Consultants Private Limited, A to Z Venture Capital Limited, M. Agarwal Stock Brokers Private Limited, A M Share Brokers Private Limited, Shri Adinath Advertising Company Pvt. Ltd., Orient Landbase Private Limited, Bolt Synthetic Private Limited, Price ponder Private Limited and Lakshya Impex Private Limited are associates of GCML. Globe Comex International DMCC is step down subsidiary of GCML.

This report has been prepared by GCML and published in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 19 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, for use by the recipient as information only and is not for general circulation or public distribution. This report is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced, copied, redistributed, uploaded, published or made available to others, in any form, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission from GCML. The projections and the forecasts described in this report are based on estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections are forecasts were based may not materialize or may vary significantly from actual results and such variations will likely increase over the period of time. This report should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this report nor anything contained therein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objective, financial situation or needs of any individual in particular. The research analysts of GCML have adhered to the code of conduct under Regulation 24 (2) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. The recipients of this report must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial situation or needs and other factors. The recipients should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for its/ his/ her/their particular circumstances and if necessary, seek professional / financial advice as there is substantial risk of loss. GCML does not take any responsibility thereof.

Any such recipient shall be responsible for conducting his/her/its/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this report and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in securities forming the subject matter of this report. The price and value of the investment referred to in this report and income from them may go up as well as down, and investors may realize profit/loss on their investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the projection.

This report has been prepared by GCML based on the information available in the public domain and other public sources believed to be reliable. Though utmost care has been taken to ensure its accuracy and completeness, no representation or warranty, express or implied is made by GCML that such information is accurate or complete and/or is independently verified. The contents of this report represent the assumptions and projections of GCML and GCML does not guarantee the accuracy or reliability of any projection, assurances or advice made herein. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and/or tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to recipients’ specific circumstances.

Since GCML or its associates are engaged in various financial activities, they might have financial interest or beneficial ownership in various companies including subject company/companies mentioned in the report. GCML or its associates have not received any compensation for investment banking or merchant banking from the subject company in the past 12 months. GCML or its associates might have received any compensation including brokerage services and for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking from the subject company in the past 12 months. It is confirmed that GCML or research analyst or its associates have not managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past 12 months.

Research analyst or GCML or its relatives’/associates’ have no material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. Neither research analyst nor GCML are engaged in market making activity for the subject company. It is confirmed that research analysts do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. It is also confirmed that research analyst have not received any compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months.

No material disciplinary action has been taken on GCML by any regulatory authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities.

The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. This information is subject to change, as per applicable law, without any prior notice. GCML reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement, as may be required, from time to time.

Research analyst or GCML or its relatives’/associates’ do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more in securities of the subject company, at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the document.