Bullions counter may trade on narrow range as most global markets are closed for New Year holiday. Gold prices dipped in thin trade on Monday as traders awaited fresh catalysts, including next week’s U.S. economic data, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook for 2025, as well as policies from incoming President Donald Trump.
Commodity Morning Trading Guide
Report Overview
COMMODITY DAILY MARKET NEWS AND OUTLOOK
BULLIONS
- Bullions counter may trade on narrow range as most global markets are closed for New Year holiday. Gold prices dipped in thin trade on Monday as traders awaited fresh catalysts, including next week’s U.S. economic data, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook for 2025, as well as policies from incoming President Donald Trump.
- Overall gold (Feb) can move in range of 76300-76800 while silver (Mar) also can move in range of 86500 -88000.
- Geopolitical tensions are expected to remain high into next year, with central banks continuing to buy gold, while the U.S. debt situation is likely to worsen and the deficit to grow under the Trump administration, fuelling ongoing safe-haven demand for the metal.
- Anticipation of major U.S. policy shifts in 2025, including potential tariffs, deregulation and tax changes, has grown as Trump prepares to take office in January.
- Earlier this month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a cautious stance on further rate cuts after delivering a quarter-point reduction, aligning with market expectations.
BASE METALS
- In base metal counter, Copper prices can trade on weaker path as it can move in range of 785-805. Base metals were mixed on Tuesday, the last trading session of 2024, as positive China factory activity data countered pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar.
- China’s manufacturing activity expanded for a third straight month in December but at a slower pace, an official factory survey showed, suggesting fresh stimulus measures are supporting the world’s second-largest economy.
- Aluminium prices can trade on mixed path as it may move in range of 238-245.while lead may also move in range of 175-180.
- The dollar remained strong and was set for significant gains in 2024 as investors anticipated fewer U.S. rate cuts next year and new policies from the incoming Trump administration.
- Rising U.S. Treasury yields have been a boost for the dollar, with the key 10-year note hitting a more than seven-month high last week.
ENERGY
- Crude oil may trade on narrow range as it can move in range of 6100-6210. Oil prices fell around 3% in 2024, slipping for a second straight year, as the post-pandemic demand recovery stalled, China’s economy struggled, and the U.S. and other non-OPEC producers pumped more crude into a well-supplied global market.
- Natural gas may trade on volatile path as it can move in range of 305-320.
- In September, Brent futures closed below $70 a barrel for the first time since December 2021, and this year Brent broadly traded under highs seen in the past few years as the post-pandemic demand rebound and price shocks of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine began to fade.
- Oil will likely trade around $70 a barrel in 2025 on weak Chinese demand and rising global supplies, offsetting OPEC+-led efforts to shore up the market.
- A weaker demand outlook in China in particular forced both the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the International Energy Agency (IEA) to cut their oil demand growth expectations for 2024 and 2025.
Disclosure
Globe Capital Market Limited (“GCML”) is a Stock Broker registered with BSE, NSE, MCX, NCDEX, and MSEI in all the major segments viz. Capital, F & O and CDS segments. GCML is also a Depository Participant and registered with both the Depositories viz. CDSL and NSDL. Further, GCML is a SEBI registered Portfolio Manager and Research Analyst. GCML includes subsidiaries, group and associate companies, promoters, directors, employees and affiliates.
AY Securities and Commodities Limited, Globe Derivatives and Securities Limited & Globe Fincap Limited are subsidiaries of GCML. AtoZFinstock Private Limited, A to Z Consultants Private Limited, A to Z Venture Capital Limited, M. Agarwal Stock Brokers Private Limited, A M Share Brokers Private Limited, Shri Adinath Advertising Company Pvt. Ltd., Orient Landbase Private Limited, Bolt Synthetic Private Limited, Price ponder Private Limited, LakshyaImpex Private Limited and Launchpad Fintech Private Limited are associates of GCML.
This report has been prepared by GCML and published in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 19 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, for use by the recipient as information only and is not for general circulation or public distribution. This report is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced, copied, redistributed, uploaded, published or made available to others, in any form, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission from GCML. The projections and the forecasts described in this report are based on estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections are forecasts were based may not materialize or may vary significantly from actual results and such variations will likely increase over the period of time. This report should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this report nor anything contained therein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objective, financial situation or needs of any individual in particular. The research analysts of GCML have adhered to the code of conduct under Regulation 24 (2) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. The recipients of this report must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial situation or needs and other factors. The recipients should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for its/ his/ her/their particular circumstances and if necessary, seek professional / financial advice as there is substantial risk of loss. GCML does not take any responsibility thereof.
Any such recipient shall be responsible for conducting his/her/its/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this report and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in securities forming the subject matter of this report. The price and value of the investment referred to in this report and income from them may go up as well as down, and investors may realize profit/loss on their investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the projection.
AY Securities and Commodities Limited, Globe Derivatives and Securities Limited & Globe Fincap Limited are subsidiaries of GCML. AtoZFinstock Private Limited, A to Z Consultants Private Limited, A to Z Venture Capital Limited, M. Agarwal Stock Brokers Private Limited, A M Share Brokers Private Limited, Shri Adinath Advertising Company Pvt. Ltd., Orient Landbase Private Limited, Bolt Synthetic Private Limited, Price ponder Private Limited, LakshyaImpex Private Limited and Launchpad Fintech Private Limited are associates of GCML.
This report has been prepared by GCML and published in accordance with the provisions of Regulation 19 of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014, for use by the recipient as information only and is not for general circulation or public distribution. This report is not to be altered, transmitted, reproduced, copied, redistributed, uploaded, published or made available to others, in any form, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission from GCML. The projections and the forecasts described in this report are based on estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections are forecasts were based may not materialize or may vary significantly from actual results and such variations will likely increase over the period of time. This report should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this report nor anything contained therein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objective, financial situation or needs of any individual in particular. The research analysts of GCML have adhered to the code of conduct under Regulation 24 (2) of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014. The recipients of this report must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial situation or needs and other factors. The recipients should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for its/ his/ her/their particular circumstances and if necessary, seek professional / financial advice as there is substantial risk of loss. GCML does not take any responsibility thereof.
Any such recipient shall be responsible for conducting his/her/its/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this report and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in securities forming the subject matter of this report. The price and value of the investment referred to in this report and income from them may go up as well as down, and investors may realize profit/loss on their investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in the projection.