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Market Speaks: Slowdown In China And Global Trade Worries Primarily Leading To Moderation In World Economic Growth
21-May-2019 (13:47)

Philip Lowe, the Governor of the Reserve Bank Of Australia (RBA), noted today in a speech that up until around the middle of last year, the global economy was growing quite briskly before it slowed in second half of the year and saw continued moderation into 2019. There are a few factors that help explain this slowing in the global economy, according to him. The first is a slowdown in the Chinese economy. The Chinese authorities have for some time been seeking to address the build-up of risks in the financial system. As part of their efforts on this front they have sought to rein in shadow banking. The effect of this has been felt across their economy and, given the size of the Chinese economy; the impact has also been felt around the world.

A second factor is a marked slowdown in international trade. Over the past year, global trade has not grown at all. This is unusual as, historically, global trade has tended to increase at least as fast as GDP. This recent weakness partly reflects the slowing in the Chinese economy, but the increases in US and Chinese tariffs are also a factor. Not surprisingly, it has flowed through into weaker conditions in the manufacturing sector around the world and there has been a disruption to some supply chains. Business investment, too, has been affected, with firms delaying investment decisions.

A third factor contributing to the slowdown in global growth has been a series of country-specific factors, including natural disasters in Japan, a new vehicle emissions testing regime in Germany and some extreme weather events. Looking forward, the global picture looks a little brighter and it is reasonable to expect that growth will strengthen a little later in the year, he opines. The Chinese authorities have responded to the slowing in their economy with measures to support economic activity. Globally, financial conditions are very accommodative and major central banks have signalled an easier monetary policy stance than was earlier expected.

However, trade policy remains the big uncertainty. A resolution of the current disputes would help boost trade flows and reduce some of the uncertainties facing businesses. In that case, we could expect a pick-up in investment too. On the other hand, a failure to resolve the disputes represents a major downside risk to the global economy. So there is a lot riding on this issue. One other feature of the global economy that I would like to draw your attention to is the coexistence of low unemployment and low inflation. Unemployment rates in many of the major economies are the lowest they have been in many decades. At the same time, inflation remains low. While wages growth has picked up, inflation rates are mostly below 2% and below the central banks' targets.

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